Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E against the industry

Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

EV/EBITDA against its history

Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

P/B below the industry

Harley-Davidson's price-to-book of 1.17 is below the Transportation Equipment median of 1.85.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $33.96 is below our fair value estimate of $48.98.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 30.7% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -8.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -17.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth not accelerating

Net income grew -126% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 204% a year.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew -14.6% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Equipment median is 9.5%.

Guidance raised

Harley-Davidson raised its full year 2026 Operating income outlook on Oct 29, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 31.5% over the last twelve months, against 40.8% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was -4.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 21.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was -3.5%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity below the industry

Harley-Davidson's return on equity of -4.0% is below the Transportation Equipment median of 2.7%.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 204% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was -3.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.7%.

Net margin below the industry

Harley-Davidson's net margin of -3.3% is below the Transportation Equipment median of 1.9%.

High debt

Debt is 77.1% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 522% five years ago to 77.1%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 18.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense -12.0 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.97 times current liabilities.

Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

The Altman Z-score is 2.04; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Harley-Davidson paid dividends worth 2.2% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 2.2% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Harley-Davidson yields 2.2%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 25.8% of free cash flow.