Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD) stock analysis
Close on Nov 10, 2026Market cap $5.47BP/E 43.3Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed12 of 30 checks passed
Modine Manufacturing passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 13.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 11.3 times.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 22.4% of total debt.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 42.0% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $103.07 is above our fair value estimate of $72.57.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 21.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
High debt
Debt is 58.8% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Valuation1/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Modine Manufacturing's P/E of 43.3 is above its own 5-year median of 27.0.
P/E above the industry
Modine Manufacturing's P/E of 43.3 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 18.7.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Modine Manufacturing's EV/EBITDA of 13.5 is below its 5-year median of 15.4.
P/B above the industry
Modine Manufacturing's price-to-book of 4.45 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.56.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $103.07 is above our fair value estimate of $72.57.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 42.0% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -8.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 35.1% over the last twelve months; the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median is 5.5%.
Guidance raised
Modine Manufacturing raised its Fiscal 2026 Net sales growth outlook on Feb 4, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 21.7% over the last twelve months, against 24.0% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 21.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 13.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Modine Manufacturing's return on equity of 11.4% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 3.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 3.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.7%.
Net margin above the industry
Modine Manufacturing's net margin of 3.6% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.9%.
Financial health5/6
High debt
Debt is 58.8% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 95.9% five years ago to 58.8%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 22.4% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 11.3 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.17 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.18; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Modine Manufacturing has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$72.57
The share price is 42% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.9× | 27.0× | 18.7× | $54.51 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0× | 15.4× | 8.5× | $90.33 | 41% |
| P/B | 3.6× | 5.5× | 1.6× | $82.69 | 12% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 13.5% cost of equity | – | – | $21.47 | – |
| Fair value | $72.57 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 27.0
- Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median 18.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $259.97M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $69.65M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 37.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 76%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.51
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.73
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2026
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +23.1% | +11.5% | +12.0% | +8.9% | |
| Gross profit | +13.6% | +23.4% | +20.0% | +12.1% | |
| Operating income | +20.8% | +31.6% | – | +24.9% | |
| Net income | -34.0% | -7.4% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -33.9% | -8.0% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | -18.5% | +22.9% | -2.1% | +27.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2017 | FY2021 | FY2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 3.6% | -50.4% | 11.5% | |
| Return on assets | 1.2% | -15.0% | 5.3% | |
| Current ratio | 1.21 | 1.37 | 1.94 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.23 | 0.96 | 0.37 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 4.73× | -9.91× | 0.86× | |
| Interest coverage | 2.5× | -5.0× | 10.8× | |
| Inventory turnover | 8.9× | 7.5× | 5.8× | |
| Capex to revenue | 4.3% | 1.8% | 4.5% | |
| Diluted shares | 48M | 51M | 54M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2022 to 2026, five years combined
Modine Manufacturing generated $795.60M from operations and spent $470.60M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 86% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 3.8% | 1.39× | 2.18× | 11.5% |
| FY2025 | 7.1% | 1.37× | 2.27× | 22.2% |
| FY2024 | 6.7% | 1.41× | 2.55× | 24.1% |
| FY2023 | 6.7% | 1.54× | 2.87× | 29.3% |
| FY2022 | 4.2% | 1.52× | 3.38× | 21.3% |
| FY2021 | -11.7% | 1.29× | 3.36× | -50.4% |
| FY2020 | -0.1% | 1.29× | 3.01× | -0.4% |
| FY2019 | 3.8% | 1.42× | 3.04× | 16.6% |
| FY2018 | 1.1% | 1.39× | 3.34× | 4.9% |
| FY2017 | 0.9% | 1.27× | 3.00× | 3.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
- ProfitableNet income above zero$121.50M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$248.70M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year9.9% → 6.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$248.70M vs $121.50M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell15.5% → 14.4%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.78 → 1.94
- No dilutionShare count did not rise54M → 54M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year24.92% → 22.98%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.40 → 1.66
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