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Happen, Inc. (HAPN) stock analysis

HAPNNasdaqPersonal Credit InstitutionsFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 8/3036% below fair value
$15.72+0.05 (+0.32%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.81BP/E 8.8Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth2Performance2Health0Dividend0

Weak8 of 30 checks passed

Happen passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 36.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $15.72 is below our fair value estimate of $24.61.

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Happen's P/E of 8.8 is below its own 5-year median of 20.5.

  • Guidance raised

    Happen raised its Full Year 2026 Loan originations outlook on Jul 27, 2026.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -5.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -25.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.17; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation4/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Happen's P/E of 8.8 is below its own 5-year median of 20.5.

  • P/E above the industry

    Happen's P/E of 8.8 is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 8.8.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B below the industry

    Happen's price-to-book of 1.14 is below the Personal Credit Institutions median of 1.50.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $15.72 is below our fair value estimate of $24.61.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 36.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -5.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -25.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.0% over the last twelve months; the Personal Credit Institutions median is 8.8%.

  • Guidance raised

    Happen raised its Full Year 2026 Loan originations outlook on Jul 27, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance2/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Happen's return on equity of 13.8% is below the Personal Credit Institutions median of 22.7%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 20.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.3%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Happen's net margin of 20.2% is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 13.4%.

Financial health0/6

  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt coverage

    Needs operating cash flow.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term liquidity

    The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.17; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Happen has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$24.61

The share price is 36% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$15.72Price$24.61Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E14.7×20.5×8.8×$26.2980%
P/B1.3×1.1×1.5×$17.8920%
Fair value$24.61100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 20.5
  • Personal Credit Institutions median 8.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$36.63M
Value traded per 1% price move
$15.03M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
23.7%
Volatility (annualized)
51%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.41
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.75

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2010 to 2025

Net margin

13.6%+72.5 pts over 5 years

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