Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $22.89BP/E 11.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak7 of 30 checks passed
Affirm passes 7 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 19.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 39.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Guidance raised
Affirm raised its Fiscal Q4 2026 Revenue outlook on May 7, 2026.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 32.7% over the last twelve months; the Personal Credit Institutions median is 8.8%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 92.9% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $67.84 is above our fair value estimate of $35.17.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 44.5% over the last twelve months and averaged -7.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 1.1 times; we look for at least 5.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Affirm's P/E of 11.8 is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 8.8.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Affirm's price-to-book of 3.98 is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 1.50.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $67.84 is above our fair value estimate of $35.17.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 92.9% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 39.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 32.7% over the last twelve months; the Personal Credit Institutions median is 8.8%.
Guidance raised
Affirm raised its Fiscal Q4 2026 Revenue outlook on May 7, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 44.5% over the last twelve months and averaged -7.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 19.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Affirm's return on equity of 44.5% is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 22.7%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 43.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -18.0%.
Net margin above the industry
Affirm's net margin of 43.9% is above the Personal Credit Institutions median of 13.4%.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 1.1 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.58; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Affirm has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$35.17
The share price is 93% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8× | – | 8.8× | $50.59 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2× | – | 8.2× | $27.25 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 14.9% cost of equity | – | – | $12.52 | 17% |
| Fair value | $35.17 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Personal Credit Institutions median 8.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $304.02M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $121.69M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 30.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 58%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.26
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 3.33
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2026
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2026
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +32.2% | +39.0% | +37.4% | – | |
| Net income | +3597.9% | – | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +3586.7% | – | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +65.0% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
9 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2018 | FY2021 | FY2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -39.9% | 45.1% | |
| Return on assets | – | -14.1% | 14.3% | |
| Interest coverage | – | -7.3× | 0.9× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 2.3% | 5.6% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 159M | 349M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2022 to 2026, five years combined
Affirm generated $2.65B from operations and spent $1.05B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 76% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 45.3% | 0.32× | 3.15× | 45.1% |
| FY2025 | 1.6% | 0.31× | 3.56× | 1.8% |
| FY2024 | -22.3% | 0.26× | 3.36× | -19.7% |
| FY2023 | -62.1% | 0.21× | 2.94× | -38.2% |
| FY2022 | -52.4% | 0.23× | 2.28× | -27.2% |
| FY2021 | -50.7% | 0.28× | 2.84× | -39.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
- ProfitableNet income above zero$1.93B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$1.23B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year0.5% → 17.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$1.23B vs $1.93B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise341M → 349M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.34 → 0.38
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