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Northern Trust Corp (NTRSO) stock analysis

NTRSONasdaqState Commercial BanksFiscal year ends December 31Also trades as NTRS
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 11/3020% above fair value
$17.40−0.42 (-2.36%)

Close on Oct 30, 2026Market cap $30.95BP/E 13.2Yield 1.83%

StockData Score

Prices as of Oct 30, 2026How the score works

Value1Growth2Performance4Health0Dividend4

Mixed11 of 30 checks passed

Northern Trust passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
1/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 7.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 12.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 40.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 7.5% a year.

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Northern Trust's P/E of 13.2 is below its own 5-year median of 14.4.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 20.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $169.16 is above our fair value estimate of $140.60.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 18.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 6.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

Valuation1/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Northern Trust's P/E of 13.2 is below its own 5-year median of 14.4.

  • P/E above the industry

    Northern Trust's P/E of 13.2 is above the Commercial Banks median of 12.3.

  • P/S above the industry

    Northern Trust's price-to-sales of 3.67 is above the Commercial Banks median of 3.64.

  • P/B above the industry

    Northern Trust's price-to-book of 2.32 is above the Commercial Banks median of 1.27.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $169.16 is above our fair value estimate of $140.60.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 20.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 6.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 12.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 40.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 7.5% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -0.7% over the last twelve months; the Commercial Banks median is 11.4%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin trend

    Banks and insurers do not report gross profit.

Past performance4/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 18.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on assets over 1%

    Return on assets was 1.4%; for a bank or insurer, 1% or more is considered good.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Northern Trust's return on equity of 18.4% is above the Commercial Banks median of 11.2%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 7.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 28.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 21.2%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Northern Trust's net margin of 28.8% is below the Commercial Banks median of 30.0%.

Financial health0/6

  • Thin capital

    Equity is 8.0% of total assets; 8% or more is a comfortable cushion.

  • Loans funded by deposits

    Needs loans and deposits.

  • Adequate loan-loss reserve

    The allowance for credit losses is not reported.

  • High cost base

    Non-interest expense takes 65.8% of revenue; under 60% is efficient for a bank.

  • Deposits shrinking

    Deposits fell 2.7% over the past year.

  • Borrowings

    Needs debt and equity figures.

Dividend4/6

  • Pays a dividend

    Northern Trust paid dividends worth 1.9% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 1.9% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 4.0% or more; Northern Trust yields 1.9%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 9 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 24.9% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 34.8% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$140.60

The share price is 20% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$169.16Price$140.60Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E13.4×14.4×12.3×$171.6350%
P/B1.5×1.7×1.3×$109.5850%
Fair value$140.60100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 14.4
  • Commercial Banks median 12.3

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$201.14M
Value traded per 1% price move
$198.01M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
9.1%
Volatility (annualized)
24%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.17
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.13

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Net margin

21.5%+1.7 pts over 5 years