Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

Warrior Met Coal's P/E of 19.0 is above its own 5-year median of 7.8.

P/E above the industry

Warrior Met Coal's P/E of 19.0 is above the Energy median of 13.8.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

Warrior Met Coal's EV/EBITDA of 8.3 is above its 5-year median of 4.6.

P/B above the industry

Warrior Met Coal's price-to-book of 1.89 is above the Energy median of 1.49.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $83.50 is above our fair value estimate of $62.62.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 33.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -9.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -55.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 52.0% over the last twelve months; the Energy median is 1.9%.

Guidance lowered

Warrior Met Coal lowered its the full year 2026 Interest income outlook on Feb 12, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 31.7% over the last twelve months, against 23.1% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 10.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 23.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 11.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Warrior Met Coal's return on equity of 10.4% is above the Energy median of 7.2%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 12.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 20.1%.

Net margin above the industry

Warrior Met Coal's net margin of 12.5% is above the Energy median of 4.9%.

Low debt

Debt is 6.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 52.4% five years ago to 6.6%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 234% of total debt.

Interest well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 16.6 times.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 4.20 times current liabilities.

Low bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 6.46; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Warrior Met Coal paid dividends worth 0.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 0.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Warrior Met Coal yields 0.3%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 9 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 7.5% of net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.