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Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) stock analysis

BTUNYSEBituminous Coal & Lignite Surface MiningFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 6, 2026Score 9/3013% below fair value
$17.41+0.50 (+2.96%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $2.12BP/E –Yield 1.72%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value2Growth2Performance0Health4Dividend1

Mixed9 of 30 checks passed

Peabody Energy passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 12 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
2/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
1/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $16.91 is below our fair value estimate of $19.50.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 9.3% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 32.3% of total debt.

  • Guidance raised

    Peabody Energy raised its Third Quarter 2026 costs outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -5.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -8.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -3.5 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation2/6
  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Peabody Energy's EV/EBITDA of 8.6 is above its 5-year median of 2.4.

  • P/B below the industry

    Peabody Energy's price-to-book of 0.64 is below the Energy median of 1.49.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $16.91 is below our fair value estimate of $19.50.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -8.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 3.4% over the last twelve months; the Energy median is 1.9%.

  • Guidance raised

    Peabody Energy raised its Third Quarter 2026 costs outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance0/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -5.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin against its history

    Needs five years of revenue and net income.

  • Net margin against the industry

    Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health4/6
  • Low debt

    Debt is 9.3% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 167% five years ago to 9.3%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 32.3% of total debt.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -3.5 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.84 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 1.70; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend1/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Peabody Energy paid dividends worth 1.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 1.8% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Peabody Energy yields 1.8%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 6 fiscal years.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$19.50

The share price is 13% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$16.91Price$19.50Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA5.1×2.4×7.9×$10.8158%
P/B1.3×1.0×1.5×$33.3117%
Earnings power8.3% cost of equity––$30.5525%
Fair value$19.50100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 4.9
  • Energy median 13.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$55.24M
Value traded per 1% price move
$25.75M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
31.6%
Volatility (annualized)
57%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.85
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.68

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

-2.1%+57.9 pts over 5 years

Net margin

–

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