EXPAND ENERGY Corp (EXE) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Expand Energy's P/E of 7.7 is below its own 5-year median of 7.9.

P/E below the industry

Expand Energy's P/E of 7.7 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.4.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Expand Energy's EV/EBITDA of 3.8 is below its 5-year median of 4.3.

P/B below the industry

Expand Energy's price-to-book of 1.05 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $88.63 is below our fair value estimate of $100.71.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 12.0% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 1.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -39.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 28.2% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.

Guidance issued

The latest outlook (full year 2026 Average daily production, Oct 27, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

Gross margin trend

This company does not report gross profit.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 14.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.0% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 12.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Expand Energy's return on equity of 14.6% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin above its 5-year average

Net margin was 19.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 17.0%.

Net margin above the industry

Expand Energy's net margin of 19.8% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.

Low debt

Debt is 23.8% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

Debt trend

Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 122% of total debt.

Interest well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 17.4 times.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.90 times current liabilities.

Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

The Altman Z-score is 2.32; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Expand Energy paid dividends worth 3.2% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 3.2% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Expand Energy yields 3.2%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 19.9% of net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 21.1% of free cash flow.