Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $57.22BP/E 7.7Yield 1.68%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed11 of 30 checks passed
Occidental Petroleum passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 1/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 27.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $57.24 is below our fair value estimate of $78.43.
Low debt
Debt is 27.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 100% of total debt.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -16.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -49.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 1.82; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Guidance lowered
Occidental Petroleum lowered its fourth quarter 2025 adjusted effective tax rate for discontinued operations outlook on Jan 20, 2026.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Occidental Petroleum's P/E of 7.7 is below its own 5-year median of 13.2.
P/E below the industry
Occidental Petroleum's P/E of 7.7 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.4.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Occidental Petroleum's EV/EBITDA of 4.5 is below its 5-year median of 6.0.
P/B above the industry
Occidental Petroleum's price-to-book of 1.33 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $57.24 is below our fair value estimate of $78.43.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 27.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -16.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -49.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 34.7% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.
Guidance lowered
Occidental Petroleum lowered its fourth quarter 2025 adjusted effective tax rate for discontinued operations outlook on Jan 20, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 27.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 195% five years ago to 27.4%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 100% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.38 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 1.82; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend1/6
Pays a dividend
Occidental Petroleum paid dividends worth 1.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 1.8% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Occidental Petroleum yields 1.8%.
Dividend was cut
The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$78.43
The share price is 27% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.8× | 13.2× | 10.4× | $87.65 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7× | 6.0× | 5.3× | $74.33 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.7× | 1.3× | $65.88 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $71.81 | 15% |
| Fair value | $78.43 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 13.2
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $580.65M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $415.20M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 14.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 35%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.92
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.42
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -1.9% | -16.2% | +3.9% | +5.6% | |
| EPS, diluted | -34.0% | -49.4% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | -20.7% | -30.7% | +23.7% | – | |
| Dividend per share | +9.1% | +22.7% | +3.2% | -10.7% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -56.2% | – | |
| Return on assets | -1.3% | -15.8% | – | |
| Current ratio | 1.32 | 1.07 | 0.94 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 1.95 | 0.62 | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 1.4× | – | |
| Capex to revenue | 26.9% | 14.2% | 29.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 764M | 919M | 1.00B |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Occidental Petroleum generated $61.52B from operations and spent $32.71B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 79% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 20.3% | 0.32× | 2.43× | 15.6% |
| FY2022 | 36.3% | 0.50× | 2.93× | 52.8% |
| FY2021 | 8.9% | 0.33× | 3.99× | 11.9% |
| FY2020 | -83.3% | 0.19× | 3.55× | -56.2% |
| FY2019 | -4.7% | 0.28× | 2.69× | -3.5% |
| FY2018 | 23.2% | 0.42× | 4.00× | 39.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero–
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$10.53B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year– → –
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$10.53B vs –
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell29.2% → 24.5%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.95 → 0.94
- No dilutionShare count did not rise967M → 1.00B
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year85.83% → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.30 → 0.25
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