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ANTERO RESOURCES Corp (AR) stock analysis

ARNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural GasFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 10/3019% below fair value
$38.74+0.03 (+0.08%)

Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $11.90BP/E 8.7Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth2Performance1Health3Dividend0

Mixed10 of 30 checks passed

Antero Resources passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
1/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $38.74 is below our fair value estimate of $47.72.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 13.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 32.2% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 80.7% of total debt.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 18.8% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -9.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -29.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 1.99; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation4/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Antero Resources's P/E of 8.7 is below its own 5-year median of 11.6.

  • P/E below the industry

    Antero Resources's P/E of 8.7 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.2.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Antero Resources's EV/EBITDA of 5.5 is below its 5-year median of 8.5.

  • P/B above the industry

    Antero Resources's price-to-book of 1.38 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.38.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $38.74 is below our fair value estimate of $47.72.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 18.8% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -9.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -29.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 28.7% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 9.1%.

  • Guidance raised

    Antero Resources raised its fourth quarter Cash production expense outlook on Oct 28, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance1/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 13.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin against its history

    Needs five years of revenue and net income.

  • Net margin against the industry

    Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health3/6

  • Low debt

    Debt is 32.2% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 52.0% five years ago to 32.2%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 80.7% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.39 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 1.99; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Antero Resources has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$47.72

The share price is 19% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$38.74Price$47.72Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E10.9×11.6×10.2×$48.3840%
EV/EBITDA7.0×8.5×5.5×$51.7035%
P/B1.4×1.4×1.4×$39.1010%
Earnings power8.9% cost of equity––$42.4215%
Fair value$47.72100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 11.6
  • Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$165.07M
Value traded per 1% price move
$93.11M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
14.7%
Volatility (annualized)
37%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.21
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.76

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

16.7%+44.1 pts over 5 years

Net margin

–

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