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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock analysis

UPSTNasdaqFinance ServicesFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 3, 2026Score 12/309% below fair value
$20.56+0.15 (+0.73%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $2.00BP/E 42.0Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value2Growth1Performance5Health4Dividend0

Mixed12 of 30 checks passed

Upstart passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
2/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
5/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $20.56 is below our fair value estimate of $22.63.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • No debt

    Upstart has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 55.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 9.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 7.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -7.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 7.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation2/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E above the industry

    Upstart's P/E of 42.0 is above the Finance services median of 11.8.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Upstart's EV/EBITDA of 20.5 is below its 5-year median of 33.7.

  • P/B above the industry

    Upstart's price-to-book of 2.51 is above the Finance services median of 0.83.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $20.56 is below our fair value estimate of $22.63.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 9.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 7.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 46.3% over the last twelve months; the Finance services median is 9.8%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Upstart lowered its full-year 2026 Revenue From Fees outlook on Aug 4, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance5/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 7.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -7.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Upstart's return on equity of 7.9% is above the Finance services median of -33.5%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 55.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 4.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -11.8%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Upstart's net margin of 4.8% is above the Finance services median of -64.5%.

Financial health4/6

  • No debt

    Upstart has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term liquidity

    The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Upstart has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$22.63

The share price is 9% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$20.56Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/Eleft out, too far from the others11.8×–11.8×$5.81–
EV/EBITDA23.8×33.7×13.8×$23.1078%
P/B2.6×4.3×0.8×$20.9722%
Fair value$22.63100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Finance services median 11.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$110.09M
Value traded per 1% price move
$44.56M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
35.2%
Volatility (annualized)
64%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.80
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
3.19

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Operating margin

4.1%−1.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

5.1%+2.6 pts over 5 years

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