United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $38.46BP/E 10.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed10 of 30 checks passed
United Airlines passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $118.37 is below our fair value estimate of $140.92.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 13.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 66.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 30.9% of total debt.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 16.0% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 22.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
High debt
Debt is 149% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation2/6
P/E above its 5-year median
United Airlines's P/E of 10.8 is above its own 5-year median of 9.1.
P/E below the industry
United Airlines's P/E of 10.8 is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 17.7.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
United Airlines's EV/EBITDA of 6.3 is above its 5-year median of 5.6.
P/B above the industry
United Airlines's price-to-book of 2.17 is above the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 1.77.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $118.37 is below our fair value estimate of $140.92.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 16.0% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 66.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 12.3% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (Q4 total operating revenue growth, Oct 20, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 22.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 13.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
United Airlines's return on equity of 22.3% is above the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 13.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 5.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.9%.
Net margin above the industry
United Airlines's net margin of 5.5% is above the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 4.6%.
Financial health2/6
High debt
Debt is 149% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 449% five years ago to 149%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 30.9% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 3.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.75 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.42; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
United Airlines has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$140.92
The share price is 16% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.4× | 9.1× | 17.7× | $145.99 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3× | 5.6× | 9.1× | $143.46 | 35% |
| P/B | 2.1× | 2.4× | 1.8× | $112.68 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.9% cost of equity | – | – | $140.28 | 15% |
| Fair value | $140.92 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 9.1
- Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median 17.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $572.38M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $213.04M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 20.6%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 49%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.38
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.40
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.5% | +9.5% | +30.9% | +4.5% | |
| Operating income | -7.5% | +26.3% | – | -0.9% | |
| Net income | +6.5% | +65.7% | – | -7.5% | |
| EPS, diluted | +7.9% | +66.0% | – | -6.3% | |
| Free cash flow | -33.2% | +27.0% | – | -2.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 25.5% | -80.8% | 24.0% | |
| Return on assets | 5.5% | -12.6% | 4.5% | |
| Current ratio | 0.59 | 1.16 | 0.65 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.26 | 4.49 | 1.64 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.34× | -3.88× | 2.49× | |
| Interest coverage | 6.4× | – | 3.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | |
| Diluted shares | 330M | 279M | 329M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
United Airlines generated $32.92B from operations and spent $26.39B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 97% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 5.7% | 0.78× | 5.38× | 24.0% |
| FY2024 | 5.5% | 0.79× | 6.60× | 28.6% |
| FY2023 | 4.9% | 0.78× | 8.54× | 32.3% |
| FY2022 | 1.6% | 0.66× | 11.37× | 12.4% |
| FY2021 | -8.0% | 0.39× | 11.62× | -35.7% |
| FY2020 | -46.0% | 0.27× | 6.41× | -80.8% |
| FY2019 | 7.0% | 0.85× | 4.71× | 27.9% |
| FY2018 | 5.1% | 0.90× | 4.85× | 22.5% |
| FY2017 | 5.7% | 0.92× | 4.75× | 24.7% |
| FY2016 | 6.1% | 0.90× | 4.62× | 25.5% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$3.35B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$8.43B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.4% → 4.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$8.43B vs $3.35B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell29.3% → 26.9%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.81 → 0.65
- No dilutionShare count did not rise333M → 329M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.80 → 0.80
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