American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $9.34BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak2 of 30 checks passed
American Airlines passes 2 of the 30 checks behind our score; 14 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
P/S below the industry
American Airlines's price-to-sales of 0.15 is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 0.65 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 12.3% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 30.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $14.10 is above our fair value estimate of $10.81.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 4.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 3.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation1/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
American Airlines's EV/EBITDA of 9.6 is above its 5-year median of 7.4.
P/S below the industry
American Airlines's price-to-sales of 0.15 is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 0.65 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading above fair value
The share price of $14.10 is above our fair value estimate of $10.81.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 30.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 3.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 12.3% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.
Guidance lowered
American Airlines lowered its FY 2026E Adjusted earnings (loss) per diluted share outlook on Jul 23, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 4.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -0.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -0.6%.
Net margin below the industry
American Airlines's net margin of -0.8% is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 4.6%.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 14.5% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.53 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.67; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
American Airlines has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$10.81
The share price is 30% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3× | 7.4× | 9.1× | $7.80 | 70% |
| Earnings power | 11.8% cost of equity | – | – | $17.83 | 30% |
| Fair value | $10.81 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 19.0
- Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median 17.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $791.43M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $433.08M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 24.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 47%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.03
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.39
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.8% | +3.7% | +25.8% | +2.9% | |
| Operating income | -43.9% | -3.0% | – | -13.4% | |
| Net income | -86.9% | -4.4% | – | -34.5% | |
| EPS, diluted | -86.3% | -3.6% | – | -34.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 96.6% | 254.4% | -2.9% | |
| Return on assets | 5.2% | -14.6% | 0.2% | |
| Current ratio | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.50 | |
| Debt to equity | -85.72 | -4.73 | -7.75 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 3.44× | -4.00× | 7.62× | |
| Interest coverage | 5.1× | -8.5× | 0.9× | |
| Capex to revenue | 14.3% | 11.3% | 6.9% | |
| Diluted shares | 556M | 484M | 661M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
American Airlines generated $13.76B from operations and spent $11.85B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.2% | 0.88× | -16.04× | -2.9% |
| FY2024 | 1.6% | 0.87× | -13.60× | -18.4% |
| FY2023 | 1.6% | 0.83× | -11.61× | -14.9% |
| FY2022 | 0.3% | 0.75× | -9.98× | -1.9% |
| FY2021 | -6.7% | 0.47× | -9.04× | 28.1% |
| FY2020 | -51.2% | 0.28× | -17.47× | 254.4% |
| FY2019 | 3.7% | 0.76× | -420.12× | -1174.9% |
| FY2018 | 3.2% | 0.79× | -119.46× | -297.6% |
| FY2017 | 3.0% | 0.82× | -97.80× | -241.0% |
| FY2016 | 6.4% | 0.81× | 18.63× | 96.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$111.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$3.10B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year1.3% → 0.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$3.10B vs $111.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell40.7% → 40.9%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.54 → 0.50
- No dilutionShare count did not rise721M → 661M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.86 → 0.88
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