Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $4.58BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Alaska Air passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 47.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $41.03 is below our fair value estimate of $78.69.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 22.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -10.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 6.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -3.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 169% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -0.9 times; we look for at least 5.
Valuation3/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Alaska Air's EV/EBITDA of 15.5 is above its 5-year median of 7.4.
P/B below the industry
Alaska Air's price-to-book of 1.30 is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 1.77.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $41.03 is below our fair value estimate of $78.69.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 47.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 22.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 8.2% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (Q3 2026 Economic fuel cost per gallon, Jul 21, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -10.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 6.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -3.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Alaska Air's return on equity of -10.5% is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 13.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -2.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.9%.
Net margin below the industry
Alaska Air's net margin of -2.6% is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 4.6%.
Financial health0/6
High debt
Debt is 169% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 117% five years ago to 169%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.7% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -0.9 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.46 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.91; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Alaska Air has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$78.69
The share price is 48% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDAleft out, too far from the others | 8.2× | 7.4× | 9.1× | $6.02 | – |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.4× | 1.8× | $50.67 | 40% |
| Earnings power | 10.2% cost of equity | – | – | $97.37 | 60% |
| Fair value | $78.69 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 25.5
- Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median 17.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $145.04M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $56.40M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 53%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.14
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.06
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +21.3% | +13.9% | +31.9% | – | |
| Operating income | -46.8% | +63.0% | – | -13.5% | |
| Net income | -74.7% | +19.9% | – | -19.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | -73.1% | +22.6% | – | -18.7% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 30.9% | -36.2% | 2.4% | |
| Return on assets | 9.7% | -9.8% | 0.5% | |
| Current ratio | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.50 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.29 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.58× | -1.56× | 4.26× | |
| Interest coverage | 23.7× | -18.1× | 1.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | 11.4% | 6.2% | – | |
| Diluted shares | 124M | 123M | 120M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Alaska Air does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.7% | 0.71× | 4.73× | 2.4% |
| FY2024 | 3.4% | 0.68× | 4.05× | 9.3% |
| FY2023 | 2.3% | 0.72× | 3.63× | 5.9% |
| FY2022 | 0.6% | 0.69× | 3.69× | 1.5% |
| FY2021 | 7.7% | 0.44× | 4.12× | 14.1% |
| FY2020 | -37.1% | 0.26× | 3.69× | -36.2% |
| FY2019 | 8.8% | 0.73× | 2.96× | 19.0% |
| FY2018 | 5.3% | 0.76× | 3.00× | 12.1% |
| FY2017 | 12.2% | 0.76× | 3.34× | 30.9% |
| FY2016 | 13.5% | 0.72× | 3.20× | 30.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$100.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$1.25B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year2.7% → 0.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$1.25B vs $100.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell22.7% → 23.4%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.61 → 0.50
- No dilutionShare count did not rise128M → 120M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.80 → 0.72
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