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Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) stock analysis

SFDNasdaqMeat Packing PlantsFiscal year ends January 3
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 27, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 27, 2026Score 19/3055% below fair value
$19.14−0.11 (-0.57%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $7.54BP/E 8.4Yield 5.22%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth1Performance5Health6Dividend3

Solid19 of 30 checks passed

Smithfield Foods passes 19 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
5/6
Financial health
6/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 55.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $19.14 is below our fair value estimate of $42.84.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 11.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 28.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.0% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -1.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew 3.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 4.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 40.0% a year.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E below the industry

    Smithfield Foods's P/E of 8.4 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 21.0.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B below the industry

    Smithfield Foods's price-to-book of 1.07 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.12.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $19.14 is below our fair value estimate of $42.84.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 55.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -1.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew 3.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 4.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 40.0% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -0.6% over the last twelve months; the Food and Kindred Products median is 0.6%.

  • Guidance raised

    Smithfield Foods raised its fiscal 2026 Total Company adjusted operating profit outlook on Aug 11, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 12.6% over the last twelve months, against 13.2% a year earlier.

Past performance5/6
  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.0% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 11.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Smithfield Foods's return on equity of 13.4% is above the Food and Kindred Products median of 6.2%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 40.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 5.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.3%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Smithfield Foods's net margin of 5.9% is above the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.3%.

Financial health6/6
  • Low debt

    Debt is 28.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 80.9% five years ago to 28.6%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 65.0% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 38.3 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 2.39 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.19; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Smithfield Foods paid dividends worth 7.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield above Treasuries

    The 7.8% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield in the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Smithfield Foods yields 7.8%.

  • Dividend stability

    Fewer than five years of dividend history.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$42.84

The share price is 55% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$19.14Price$42.84Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E21.0×–21.0×$47.8140%
EV/EBITDA13.5×–13.5×$48.9135%
P/B2.1×–2.1×$37.7610%
Earnings power7.4% cost of equity––$18.8015%
Fair value$42.84100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Food and Kindred Products median 21.0

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$38.62M
Value traded per 1% price move
$33.77M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
16.2%
Volatility (annualized)
26%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.66
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.21

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2008 to 2025

Gross margin

13.5%+3.5 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

8.3%+4.4 pts over 5 years

Net margin

6.4%+5.0 pts over 5 years

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