Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) stock analysis
Close on Nov 10, 2026Market cap $3.60BP/E 15.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed13 of 30 checks passed
Post passes 13 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 48.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $81.83 is below our fair value estimate of $157.36.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 235% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 11.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 5.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 248% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -23.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Post's P/E of 15.2 is below its own 5-year median of 18.4.
P/E below the industry
Post's P/E of 15.2 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 21.0.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Post's EV/EBITDA of 8.0 is below its 5-year median of 11.6.
P/B below the industry
Post's price-to-book of 1.17 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.12.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $81.83 is below our fair value estimate of $157.36.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 48.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -23.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -20.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 235% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 6.2% over the last twelve months; the Food and Kindred Products median is 2.7%.
Guidance raised
Post raised its fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures outlook on Aug 6, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 28.8% over the last twelve months, against 29.2% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 11.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 5.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Post's return on equity of 8.3% is above the Food and Kindred Products median of 6.5%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 235% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 3.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.9%.
Net margin above the industry
Post's net margin of 3.5% is above the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.7%.
Financial health1/6
High debt
Debt is 248% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 246% five years ago to 248%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 13.0% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 1.9 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.85 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.43; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Post has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$157.36
The share price is 48% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.7× | 18.4× | 21.0× | $106.22 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6× | 11.6× | 13.5× | $226.33 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.9× | 1.7× | 2.1× | $134.96 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $147.72 | 15% |
| Fair value | $157.36 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 18.4
- Food and Kindred Products median 21.0
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $55.08M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $44.90M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 13.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 32%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.87
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.35
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.0% | +11.7% | +11.6% | +5.8% | |
| Gross profit | +1.5% | +16.8% | +10.0% | +7.1% | |
| Operating income | +0.7% | +24.4% | +8.3% | +14.2% | |
| Net income | -8.5% | -23.7% | +234.6% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -2.3% | -23.0% | +253.4% | – | |
| Free cash flow | -2.8% | +56.5% | +4.4% | +3.6% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -0.1% | 0.0% | 8.6% | |
| Return on assets | -0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | |
| Current ratio | 3.28 | 2.35 | 1.67 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.52 | 2.46 | 1.98 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 4.02× | 6.67× | 5.47× | |
| Interest coverage | 1.8× | 1.6× | 2.2× | |
| Inventory turnover | 7.2× | 5.5× | 7.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | 2.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | |
| Diluted shares | 69M | 69M | 63M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Post generated $3.65B from operations and spent $3.93B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 43% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.1% | 0.62× | 3.36× | 8.6% |
| FY2024 | 4.6% | 0.65× | 3.09× | 9.2% |
| FY2023 | 4.3% | 0.61× | 3.23× | 8.5% |
| FY2022 | 12.9% | 0.49× | 3.96× | 25.2% |
| FY2021 | 3.3% | 0.41× | 4.39× | 6.0% |
| FY2020 | 0.0% | 0.39× | 4.17× | 0.0% |
| FY2019 | 2.2% | 0.45× | 4.18× | 4.2% |
| FY2018 | 7.5% | 0.50× | 4.28× | 16.0% |
| FY2017 | 0.9% | 0.49× | 3.67× | 1.7% |
| FY2016 | -0.1% | 0.54× | 3.10× | -0.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$335.70M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$998.30M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year3.1% → 2.6%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$998.30M vs $335.70M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell53.0% → 54.9%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.36 → 1.67
- No dilutionShare count did not rise67M → 63M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year29.09% → 28.68%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.68 → 0.63
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