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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock analysis

ODFLNasdaqTrucking (No Local)Fiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 4, 2026Score 19/3013% above fair value
$170.50+2.48 (+1.48%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $35.35BP/E 30.7Yield 0.66%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth2Performance5Health5Dividend4

Solid19 of 30 checks passed

Old Dominion Freight Line passes 19 of the 30 checks behind our score; 2 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
5/6
Financial health
5/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 26.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 30.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 27.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 0.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 8.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 12.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $170.50 is above our fair value estimate of $151.53.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -4.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -7.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Valuation3/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Old Dominion Freight Line's P/E of 30.7 is below its own 5-year median of 32.2.

  • P/E below the industry

    Old Dominion Freight Line's P/E of 30.7 is below the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 34.1.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Old Dominion Freight Line's EV/EBITDA of 18.3 is below its 5-year median of 20.0.

  • P/B above the industry

    Old Dominion Freight Line's price-to-book of 7.57 is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 1.83.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $170.50 is above our fair value estimate of $151.53.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 12.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -4.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -7.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 9.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.8% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 3.8% over the last twelve months; the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median is 7.6%.

  • Guidance raised

    Old Dominion Freight Line raised its 2026 aggregate capital expenditures outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance5/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 26.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 30.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 27.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Old Dominion Freight Line's return on equity of 26.0% is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 3.4%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 8.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 20.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 20.4%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Old Dominion Freight Line's net margin of 20.1% is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 2.1%.

Financial health5/6
  • Low debt

    Debt is 0.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 3.0% five years ago to 0.4%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 7131% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 2.04 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 20.37; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Old Dominion Freight Line paid dividends worth 0.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Old Dominion Freight Line yields 0.7%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 20.6% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 20.4% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$151.53

The share price is 13% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$170.50Price$151.53Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E33.1×32.2×34.1×$184.1544%
EV/EBITDA16.7×20.0×13.4×$155.6639%
Earnings power10.4% cost of equity––$54.8917%
Fair value$151.53100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 32.2
  • Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median 34.1

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$357.62M
Value traded per 1% price move
$245.12M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
14.9%
Volatility (annualized)
39%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.50
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.11

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

24.8%+2.2 pts over 5 years

Net margin

18.6%+1.9 pts over 5 years

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