Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) stock analysis

MRPNYSEReal EstateFiscal year ends December 31

Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 4, 2026Score 10/3040% below fair value

$25.67−0.36 (-1.38%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $4.26BP/E 8.5Yield 9.93%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Mixed10 of 30 checks passed

Millrose Properties passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 17 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation: 4/6
Growth: 0/6
Past performance: 3/6
Financial health: 0/6
Dividend: 3/6

What stands out

Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 40.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $26.03 is below our fair value estimate of $43.62.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 11.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
P/E below the industry
Millrose Properties's P/E of 8.6 is below the Real estate median of 17.3.

What to watch

Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 4.2 times; we look for at least 5.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.84; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 99.7% of net income, leaving little room.

Valuation4/6

P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E below the industry
Millrose Properties's P/E of 8.6 is below the Real estate median of 17.3.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
Millrose Properties's price-to-book of 0.74 is below the Real estate median of 0.84.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $26.03 is below our fair value estimate of $43.62.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 40.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth0/6

Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growth against the industry
Needs revenue for this year and last.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (year-end 2026 Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) quarterly run rate, Oct 27, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance3/6

Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 11.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Millrose Properties's return on equity of 8.6% is above the Real estate median of 1.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin above the industry
Millrose Properties's net margin of 63.2% is above the Real estate median of 8.6%.

Financial health0/6

Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 4.2 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.84; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6

Pays a dividend
Millrose Properties paid dividends worth 11.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 11.8% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Millrose Properties yields 11.8%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 99.7% of net income, leaving little room.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$43.62

The share price is 40% below this estimate.

20%+ below

Near fair value

20%+ above

$26.03Price$43.62Fair value

Method	Multiple used	Own 5Y median	Industry median	Value per share	Weight
P/E	17.3×	–	17.3×	$52.35	40%
EV/EBITDA	8.4×	–	8.4×	$34.36	35%
P/B	0.8×	–	0.8×	$29.43	10%
Earnings power	7.4% cost of equity	–	–	$51.42	15%
Fair value				$43.62	100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day: $79.54M
Value traded per 1% price move: $30.45M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month: 24.7%
Volatility (annualized): 33%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year: -0.68
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y): 0.46

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

Margins need revenue and profit figures

This company does not report the lines needed to calculate margins.

Measure	FY2022	FY2022	FY2025	Trend
Return on equity	–	–	6.9%

DuPont analysis

Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage

Net margin63.3%

Asset turnover0.08×

Equity multiplier1.34×

Return on equity, FY20256.9%

Fiscal year	Net margin	Asset turnover	Equity multiplier	Return on equity
FY2025	63.3%	0.08×	1.34×	6.9%

Where these numbers come from

Parsed from the XBRL in Millrose Properties's annual and quarterly filings with the SEC
Fourth quarters derived from the annual report minus nine months
Every figure in the statements links to its source filing