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Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) stock analysis

FORNYSEReal EstateFiscal year ends September 30
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Jul 22, 2026Score 14/3040% below fair value
$22.84−0.26 (-1.13%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.17BP/E 6.9Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value6Growth1Performance3Health4Dividend0

Mixed14 of 30 checks passed

Forestar passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
6/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
3/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 39.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $22.84 is below our fair value estimate of $37.94.

  • No debt

    Forestar has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 22.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 9.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -2.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 4.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.5% a year.

Valuation6/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Forestar's P/E of 6.9 is below its own 5-year median of 7.8.

  • P/E below the industry

    Forestar's P/E of 6.9 is below the Real estate median of 17.3.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Forestar's EV/EBITDA of 3.4 is below its 5-year median of 4.2.

  • P/B below the industry

    Forestar's price-to-book of 0.63 is below the Real estate median of 0.84.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $22.84 is below our fair value estimate of $37.94.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 39.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -2.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 4.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.5% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 11.8% over the last twelve months; the Real estate median is 5.4%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Forestar lowered its fiscal 2026 lot delivery outlook on Apr 21, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 21.4% over the last twelve months, against 22.4% a year earlier.

Past performance3/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 9.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Forestar's return on equity of 9.6% is above the Real estate median of 1.5%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 22.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 9.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.1%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Forestar's net margin of 9.9% is above the Real estate median of 8.6%.

Financial health4/6

  • No debt

    Forestar has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term liquidity

    The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 1.54; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Forestar has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$37.94

The share price is 40% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$22.84Price$37.94Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E12.5×7.8×17.3×$41.6547%
EV/EBITDA6.3×4.2×8.4×$36.0541%
P/B0.8×0.8×0.8×$29.7012%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others9.4% cost of equity––$0.16–
Fair value$37.94100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 7.8
  • Real estate median 17.3

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$5.07M
Value traded per 1% price move
$2.54M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
15.6%
Volatility (annualized)
34%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.30
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.90

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2009 to 2025

Gross margin

21.9%+9.2 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

–

Net margin

10.1%+3.6 pts over 5 years

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