McDonalds Corp (MCD) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $194.46BP/E –Yield 2.61%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
McDonalds passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 4/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 3/6
- Dividend
- 4/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 100.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $274.80 is below our fair value estimate of $141854350.23.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 27.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 12.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.6% a year.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.87; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 5.8% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Valuation4/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
McDonalds's EV/EBITDA of 2.9 is below its 5-year median of 3.1.
P/S below the industry
McDonalds's price-to-sales of 0.00 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 0.73 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading below fair value
The share price of $274.80 is below our fair value estimate of $141854350.23.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 100.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 12.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 5.8% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 27.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 12.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 32.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 31.2%.
Net margin above the industry
McDonalds's net margin of 32.4% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.
Financial health3/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.5% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 8.0 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.23 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.87; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend4/6
Pays a dividend
McDonalds paid dividends worth 2.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 2.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; McDonalds yields 2.7%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 58.7% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 70.4% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$141,854,350.23
The share price is 100% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5× | 3.1× | 12.3× | $125,643,847.44 | 70% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $179,678,856.71 | 30% |
| Fair value | $141,854,350.23 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $1.47B
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.37B
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 11.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 21%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.60
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.45
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.7% | +5.1% | +7.0% | +0.6% | |
| Operating income | +5.8% | +9.8% | +11.1% | +5.7% | |
| Net income | +4.1% | +11.5% | +12.6% | +6.6% | |
| EPS, diluted | +4.9% | +12.8% | +13.6% | +9.6% | |
| Free cash flow | +7.7% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +4.3% | |
| Dividend per share | +5.8% | +8.2% | +7.3% | +7.6% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 191.9% | -59.0% | -306.5% | |
| Return on assets | 13.6% | 9.4% | 14.9% | |
| Current ratio | 1.40 | 1.01 | 0.95 | |
| Debt to equity | -11.78 | -4.78 | -23.17 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 2.67× | 4.46× | 3.17× | |
| Interest coverage | 8.8× | 6.0× | 7.8× | |
| Capex to revenue | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.5% | |
| Diluted shares | 861M | 750M | 0M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
McDonalds generated $46.14B from operations and spent $47.72B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 26% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 31.9% | 0.47× | -20.53× | -306.5% |
| FY2024 | 31.7% | 0.47× | -13.09× | -193.4% |
| FY2023 | 33.2% | 0.48× | -9.95× | -158.2% |
| FY2022 | 26.6% | 0.44× | -9.83× | -116.5% |
| FY2021 | 32.5% | 0.44× | -8.57× | -121.4% |
| FY2020 | 24.6% | 0.38× | -6.24× | -59.0% |
| FY2019 | 28.2% | 0.53× | -5.55× | -83.3% |
| FY2018 | 27.9% | 0.64× | -6.99× | -124.4% |
| FY2017 | 22.8% | 0.70× | -11.85× | -189.8% |
| FY2016 | 19.0% | 0.71× | 14.12× | 191.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$8.56B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$10.55B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year14.6% → 15.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$10.55B vs $8.56B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell69.6% → 67.2%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.19 → 0.95
- No dilutionShare count did not rise0M → 0M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.46 → 0.49
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