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McDonalds Corp (MCD) stock analysis

MCDNYSERetail-Eating PlacesFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 6, 2026Score 16/30100% below fair value
$274.80−7.37 (-2.61%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $194.46BP/E –Yield 2.61%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth1Performance4Health3Dividend4

Solid16 of 30 checks passed

McDonalds passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 100.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $274.80 is below our fair value estimate of $141854350.23.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 27.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 12.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.6% a year.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.87; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 5.8% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    McDonalds's EV/EBITDA of 2.9 is below its 5-year median of 3.1.

  • P/S below the industry

    McDonalds's price-to-sales of 0.00 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 0.73 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $274.80 is below our fair value estimate of $141854350.23.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 100.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 12.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.6% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 5.8% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance4/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 27.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 12.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 32.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 31.2%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    McDonalds's net margin of 32.4% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.

Financial health3/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.5% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 8.0 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.23 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.87; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    McDonalds paid dividends worth 2.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; McDonalds yields 2.7%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 58.7% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 70.4% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$141,854,350.23

The share price is 100% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$274.80Price$141,854,350.23Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA9.5×3.1×12.3×$125,643,847.4470%
Earnings power7.4% cost of equity––$179,678,856.7130%
Fair value$141,854,350.23100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$1.47B
Value traded per 1% price move
$1.37B

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
11.0%
Volatility (annualized)
21%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.60
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.45

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

46.1%+8.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

31.9%+7.2 pts over 5 years

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