Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $44.49BP/E 32.9Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
Chipotle Mexican Grill passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $36.64 is below our fair value estimate of $42.06.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 48.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 41.4% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 81.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Chipotle Mexican Grill has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 12.9% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -10.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 34.0% a year.
P/E above the industry
Chipotle Mexican Grill's P/E of 34.2 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.
Guidance lowered
Chipotle Mexican Grill lowered its 2027 company-owned and partner-operated restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada outlook on Oct 28, 2026.
Valuation3/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Chipotle Mexican Grill's P/E of 34.2 is below its own 5-year median of 52.9.
P/E above the industry
Chipotle Mexican Grill's P/E of 34.2 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Chipotle Mexican Grill's EV/EBITDA of 20.8 is below its 5-year median of 33.3.
P/B above the industry
Chipotle Mexican Grill's price-to-book of 18.88 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 3.13.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $36.64 is below our fair value estimate of $42.06.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 12.9% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 21.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -10.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 34.0% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 7.9% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Guidance lowered
Chipotle Mexican Grill lowered its 2027 company-owned and partner-operated restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada outlook on Oct 28, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 48.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 41.4% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 81.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Chipotle Mexican Grill's return on equity of 48.5% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 7.9%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 34.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 10.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.6%.
Net margin above the industry
Chipotle Mexican Grill's net margin of 10.8% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.
Financial health5/6
No debt
Chipotle Mexican Grill has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.81 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 5.95; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Chipotle Mexican Grill has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$42.06
The share price is 13% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.8× | 52.9× | 28.5× | $43.64 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.9× | 33.3× | 12.3× | $40.26 | 47% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 9.8% cost of equity | – | – | $13.36 | – |
| Fair value | $42.06 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 52.9
- Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $702.00M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $307.55M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 16.2%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 41%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.39
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.99
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.4% | +11.4% | +14.8% | – | |
| Operating income | +1.0% | +18.6% | +46.2% | +9.7% | |
| Net income | +0.1% | +19.5% | +34.0% | +12.4% | |
| EPS, diluted | +2.7% | +21.2% | +35.4% | +14.2% | |
| Free cash flow | -4.2% | +19.7% | +37.9% | +13.0% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 1.3% | 19.2% | 47.4% | |
| Return on assets | 1.0% | 6.4% | 16.9% | |
| Current ratio | 1.85 | 1.73 | 1.23 | |
| Capex to revenue | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | |
| Diluted shares | 1.49B | 1.42B | 1.34B |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Chipotle Mexican Grill generated $8.61B from operations and spent $8.06B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 34% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 12.9% | 1.31× | 2.81× | 47.4% |
| FY2024 | 13.6% | 1.31× | 2.57× | 45.7% |
| FY2023 | 12.4% | 1.32× | 2.76× | 45.3% |
| FY2022 | 10.4% | 1.27× | 2.91× | 38.5% |
| FY2021 | 8.7% | 1.19× | 2.93× | 30.2% |
| FY2020 | 5.9% | 1.08× | 2.99× | 19.2% |
| FY2019 | 6.3% | 1.52× | 2.36× | 22.4% |
| FY2018 | 3.6% | 2.26× | 1.54× | 12.6% |
| FY2017 | 3.9% | 2.20× | 1.47× | 12.7% |
| FY2016 | 0.6% | 1.64× | 1.35× | 1.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$1.54B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$2.11B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year19.1% → 16.7%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$2.11B vs $1.54B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.52 → 1.23
- No dilutionShare count did not rise1.38B → 1.34B
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.41 → 1.30
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