Mastercard Inc (MA) stock analysis

MANYSEServices-Business Services, NECFiscal year ends December 31

Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 12/30358% above fair value

$660.73+1.89 (+0.29%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $575.61BP/E –Yield 0.48%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Mixed12 of 30 checks passed

Mastercard passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation: 1/6
Growth: 3/6
Past performance: 1/6
Financial health: 4/6
Dividend: 3/6

What stands out

Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 99.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 17.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 26.2 times.

What to watch

Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 358% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $660.73 is above our fair value estimate of $144.23.
High debt
Debt is 354% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
P/B above the industry
Mastercard's price-to-book of 85.24 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.48.

Valuation1/6

P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Mastercard's EV/EBITDA of 26.2 is below its 5-year median of 28.7.
P/B above the industry
Mastercard's price-to-book of 85.24 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.48.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $660.73 is above our fair value estimate of $144.23.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 358% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth3/6

Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 17.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 15.3% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance1/6

Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 99.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health4/6

High debt
Debt is 354% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 198% five years ago to 354%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 70.4% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 26.2 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.01 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 10.86; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6

Pays a dividend
Mastercard paid dividends worth 0.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 0.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Mastercard yields 0.5%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 8 fiscal years.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 18.6% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$144.23

The share price is 358% above this estimate.

20%+ below

Near fair value

20%+ above

$660.73Price$144.23Fair value

Method	Multiple used	Own 5Y median	Industry median	Value per share	Weight
EV/EBITDAleft out, too far from the others	22.3×	28.7×	15.7×	$558.95	–
P/B	12.0×	63.3×	2.5×	$93.02	40%
Earnings power	9.2% cost of equity	–	–	$178.38	60%
Fair value				$144.23	100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

P/E at month end
Miscellaneous Business Services median 25.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day: $2.00B
Value traded per 1% price move: $1.78B

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month: 8.1%
Volatility (annualized): 23%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year: 0.64
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y): 0.87

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

57.6%+4.8 pts over 5 years

Net margin

–

Growth rates

Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025

Per year	1 year	3 years	5 years	10 years
Revenue	+16.4%	+13.8%	+16.5%	+13.0%
Operating income	+21.3%	+15.5%	+18.5%	+14.0%
EPS, diluted	+18.9%	+17.4%	+21.0%	+17.3%
Free cash flow	+19.9%	+16.9%	+20.0%	+15.9%
Dividend per share	+15.0%	+15.6%	–	+16.7%

Returns and balance sheet

10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.

Measure	FY2016	FY2020	FY2025
Current ratio	1.84	1.61	1.03
Debt to equity	0.92	1.98	2.46
Net debt to EBITDA	-0.25×	0.03×	0.42×
Interest coverage	60.6×	21.3×	26.2×
Capex to revenue	2.0%	2.2%	1.5%
Diluted shares	1.10B	1.01B	906M