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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) stock analysis

BROSNYSERetail-Eating & Drinking PlacesFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 5, 2026Score 14/301% below fair value
$35.01−0.28 (-0.79%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $6.12BP/E 44.9Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth3Performance4Health4Dividend0

Mixed14 of 30 checks passed

Dutch Bros passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $35.01 is below our fair value estimate of $35.43.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 23.8% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 30.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 1.2% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 0.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.29; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • P/E above the industry

    Dutch Bros's P/E of 44.9 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.

Valuation3/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Dutch Bros's P/E of 44.9 is below its own 5-year median of 129.8.

  • P/E above the industry

    Dutch Bros's P/E of 44.9 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Dutch Bros's EV/EBITDA of 18.7 is below its 5-year median of 27.5.

  • P/B above the industry

    Dutch Bros's price-to-book of 7.37 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 3.13.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $35.01 is below our fair value estimate of $35.43.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 1.2% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth3/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 30.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 30.7% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.

  • Guidance raised

    Dutch Bros raised its 2026 Total revenues outlook on Aug 5, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 24.8% over the last twelve months, against 26.3% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 13.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 0.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Dutch Bros's return on equity of 13.7% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 7.9%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 5.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 0.9%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Dutch Bros's net margin of 5.1% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.

Financial health4/6

  • Low debt

    Debt is 23.8% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 37.1% five years ago to 23.8%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 191% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.03 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.29; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Dutch Bros has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$35.43

The share price is 1% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$35.01Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E45.0×129.8×28.5×$35.1047%
EV/EBITDA19.2×27.5×12.3×$36.8741%
P/B6.7×11.0×3.1×$31.7312%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others14.7% cost of equity––$5.24–
Fair value$35.43100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 130
  • Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$201.86M
Value traded per 1% price move
$88.20M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
25.3%
Volatility (annualized)
55%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.77
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.97

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Gross margin

25.9%−9.5 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

9.8%+6.5 pts over 5 years

Net margin

4.9%+4.9 pts over 5 years

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