Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $438.64MP/E 54.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Black Rock Coffee Bar passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 19.0%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 89.8% of total debt.
Guidance raised
Black Rock Coffee Bar raised its full year 2026 new store openings outlook on Aug 11, 2026.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 26.0% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 72.1% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $8.76 is above our fair value estimate of $5.09.
High debt
Debt is 57.7% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.46; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Black Rock Coffee Bar's P/E of 54.8 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Black Rock Coffee Bar's price-to-book of 6.65 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 3.13.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $8.76 is above our fair value estimate of $5.09.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 72.1% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 26.0% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Guidance raised
Black Rock Coffee Bar raised its full year 2026 new store openings outlook on Aug 11, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 29.6% over the last twelve months, against 28.8% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 19.0%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Black Rock Coffee Bar's return on equity of 6.9% is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 7.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin below the industry
Black Rock Coffee Bar's net margin of 1.6% is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.
Financial health1/6
High debt
Debt is 57.7% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 89.8% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.64 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.46; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Black Rock Coffee Bar has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$5.09
The share price is 72% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.5× | – | 28.5× | $4.56 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3× | – | 12.3× | $5.97 | 41% |
| P/B | 3.1× | – | 3.1× | $4.13 | 12% |
| Fair value | $5.09 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $4.77M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.08M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 49.1%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 81%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.85
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.20
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2022 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +24.5% | – | – | – | |
| Gross profit | +30.5% | – | – | – | |
| Operating income | -85.1% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
4 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2022 | FY2022 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | – | – | 1.04 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | 0.59 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | -0.13× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 17.4% |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Black Rock Coffee Bar does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -0.0% | 0.73× | -2.59× | 0.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$60.00K
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$2.19M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year– → -0.0%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$2.19M vs -$60.00K
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell41.9% → 7.7%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.58 → 1.04
- No dilutionShare count did not rise– → 17M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year27.97% → 29.32%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose– → 0.94
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