Amcor plc (AMCCF) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Amcor's P/E of 19.9 is below its own 5-year median of 20.1.

P/E above the industry

Amcor's P/E of 19.9 is above the Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries median of 19.2.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Amcor's EV/EBITDA of 10.3 is below its 5-year median of 12.0.

P/B above the industry

Amcor's price-to-book of 1.86 is above the Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries median of 1.65.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $47.39 is below our fair value estimate of $48.42.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 2.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing 10%+ a year

Revenue grew 17.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -12.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth accelerating

Net income grew 116% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.3% a year.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 56.6% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries median is 9.8%.

Guidance lowered

Amcor lowered its Fiscal 2026 Free Cash Flow outlook on May 6, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 20.0% over the last twelve months, against 18.9% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 9.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 15.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 6.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Amcor's return on equity of 9.4% is above the Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries median of 1.7%.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 3.3% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 4.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.2%.

Net margin below the industry

Amcor's net margin of 4.7% is below the Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries median of 4.7%.

High debt

Debt is 119% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 132% five years ago to 119%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.4% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 2.8 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.25 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.40; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Amcor paid dividends worth 5.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield above Treasuries

The 5.5% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 4.0% or more; Amcor yields 5.5%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Not covered by earnings

Dividends take 108% of net income, leaving little room.

Not covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 97.2% of free cash flow.