Orders paid in advance
Deferred revenue jumped 30% in a quarter and is 5%+ of assets.
Deferred revenue is cash customers paid for goods or services the company has not delivered yet. A sharp rise usually means a bigger order book, a homebuilder about to hand over units, or subscriptions renewing at higher prices — revenue that will be recognized in coming quarters.
$10,000 in this list since 2016
Rebuilt every month from the data public at the time
- Per year
- +23.3%
- All stocks +9.4%, S&P 500 +13.8%
- Worst fall from a peak
- -40%
- All stocks -35%
- Months ahead of all stocks
- 56%
- 120 months tested
- Stocks held, on average
- 27
- Equal weights
- Past 12 months
- +5.2%
- All stocks +4.1%, S&P 500 +12.4%
- Volatility, per year
- 29%
- All stocks 22%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.78
- All stocks 0.40; return over cash per unit of volatility
- Replaced each month
- 36%
- Share of the list that changes at a rebalance
Live since Oct 19, 2026. Holding the list as published, rebought at each month end: -0.9% against +2.1% for all stocks and +0.7% for the S&P 500, to Oct 30, 2026. Too short a period to read much into.
- Orders paid in advance
- All US stocks, equal weight
- S&P 500 (price only)
Year by year
| Portfolio | 2016from Oct 31 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026to Oct 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This list | +12% | +47% | +4% | +32% | +36% | +46% | -25% | +31% | +24% | +33% | +11% |
| All US stocks | +12% | +19% |
42 stocks on the list today
As of the close on Oct 30, 2026; 0 joined and 0 left since Oct 29, 2026
| # | Company | Share price | 1D | Market cap | Def. rev. QoQ | Def. rev. / assets | Rev. Q YoY | P/S | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $6.91 | −9.9% | $838M | 5975% | 9.2% | +120% | 38.7× | −31.0% | |
| 2 |
More balance-sheet situations ideas
A list produced by rules, not a recommendation. Past results in the backtest don't predict future returns. How the backtests work.