Stocking up
Inventory is 30%+ of assets and grew 10% or more in a quarter.
A company filling its warehouses either expects to sell more — ahead of a product launch or price rise — or cannot sell what it has. Comparing inventory growth with revenue growth tells the two apart.
$10,000 in this list since 2016
Rebuilt every month from the data public at the time
- Per year
- +13.5%
- All stocks +9.4%, S&P 500 +13.8%
- Worst fall from a peak
- -45%
- All stocks -35%
- Months ahead of all stocks
- 52%
- 120 months tested
- Stocks held, on average
- 23
- Equal weights
- Past 12 months
- -20.3%
- All stocks +4.1%, S&P 500 +12.4%
- Volatility, per year
- 33%
- All stocks 22%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.47
- All stocks 0.40; return over cash per unit of volatility
- Replaced each month
- 34%
- Share of the list that changes at a rebalance
Live since Oct 19, 2026. Holding the list as published, rebought at each month end: +3.7% against +2.1% for all stocks and +0.7% for the S&P 500, to Oct 30, 2026. Too short a period to read much into.
- Stocking up
- All US stocks, equal weight
- S&P 500 (price only)
Year by year
| Portfolio | 2016from Oct 31 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026to Oct 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This list | +22% | +11% | -18% | +43% | +60% | +43% | -22% | +16% | +23% | +1% | -13% |
| All US stocks | +12% | +19% |
22 stocks on the list today
As of the close on Oct 30, 2026; 1 joined and 0 left since Oct 29, 2026
| # | Company | Share price | 1D | Market cap | Inventory / assets | Inventory QoQ | Rev. Q YoY | Gross margin | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $29.10 | −3.6% | $2.2B | 35.0% | 48.3% | +42.6% | 41.2% | 2.62 | |
| 2 |
More balance-sheet situations ideas
- Building new capacityConstruction in progress is 5%+ of assets and grew 20% in a quarter.
- Orders paid in advanceDeferred revenue jumped 30% in a quarter and is 5%+ of assets.
- Depreciation running outProperty and equipment 85%+ depreciated while depreciation still eats a large share of operating profit.
A list produced by rules, not a recommendation. Past results in the backtest don't predict future returns. How the backtests work.