Willis Lease Finance Corp (WLFC) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $980.03MP/E 11.6Yield 0.83%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed14 of 30 checks passed
Willis Lease Finance passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 4/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 44.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $46.47 is below our fair value estimate of $83.70.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 30.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 63.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 13.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -25.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 63.5% a year.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.9 times; we look for at least 5.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.77; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Valuation4/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Willis Lease Finance's P/E of 11.6 is above its own 5-year median of 10.2.
P/E below the industry
Willis Lease Finance's P/E of 11.6 is below the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 20.3.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Willis Lease Finance's EV/EBITDA of 4.1 is above its 5-year median of 2.4.
P/B below the industry
Willis Lease Finance's price-to-book of 1.39 is below the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 2.15.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $46.47 is below our fair value estimate of $83.70.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 44.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 260% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -25.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 63.5% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 17.3% over the last twelve months; the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median is 7.5%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 13.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 30.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Willis Lease Finance's return on equity of 13.8% is below the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 17.2%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 63.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 12.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 9.6%.
Net margin above the industry
Willis Lease Finance's net margin of 12.0% is above the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 5.0%.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.9 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.77; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Willis Lease Finance paid dividends worth 1.1% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 1.1% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Willis Lease Finance yields 1.1%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 12.1% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 4.4% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$83.70
The share price is 44% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.2× | 10.2× | 20.3× | $60.80 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | 2.4× | 15.3× | $99.45 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.5× | 0.9× | 2.1× | $51.65 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 9.1% cost of equity | – | – | $129.37 | 15% |
| Fair value | $83.70 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 10.2
- Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median 20.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $10.55M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $4.55M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 29.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 51%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.20
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.84
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +28.3% | +32.8% | +20.4% | +13.9% | |
| Operating income | -27.8% | +119.5% | +48.0% | +24.6% | |
| Net income | +4.7% | +175.5% | +63.5% | +33.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | +0.3% | +259.9% | +71.1% | +34.2% | |
| Free cash flow | -6.2% | +22.3% | +22.8% | +10.4% | |
| Dividend per share | -23.3% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 6.9% | 2.7% | 18.8% | |
| Return on assets | 1.1% | 0.5% | 3.1% | |
| Interest coverage | 0.5× | 0.2× | 0.8× | |
| Capex to revenue | 0.5% | 1.0% | 4.3% | |
| Diluted shares | 20M | 18M | 21M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Willis Lease Finance generated $1.03B from operations and spent $108.64M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 56% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 15.6% | 0.20× | 5.97× | 18.8% |
| FY2024 | 19.1% | 0.19× | 6.02× | 22.0% |
| FY2023 | 10.5% | 0.16× | 6.20× | 10.4% |
| FY2022 | 1.7% | 0.12× | 6.45× | 1.4% |
| FY2021 | 1.2% | 0.11× | 6.53× | 0.9% |
| FY2020 | 3.4% | 0.13× | 6.03× | 2.7% |
| FY2019 | 16.4% | 0.21× | 6.08× | 21.0% |
| FY2018 | 12.4% | 0.20× | 6.48× | 15.8% |
| FY2017 | 22.6% | 0.19× | 6.46× | 27.3% |
| FY2016 | 6.8% | 0.16× | 6.49× | 6.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$113.76M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$283.24M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.1% → 3.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$283.24M vs $113.76M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise20M → 21M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.21 → 0.22
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