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Starbucks Corp (SBUX) stock analysis

SBUXNasdaqRetail-Eating & Drinking PlacesFiscal year ends September 28
Financials through Q4 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 27, 2026Last filing: 10-K on Nov 12, 2026Score 9/30117% above fair value
$107.26−2.63 (-2.39%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $122.28BP/E 48.5Yield 2.32%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth1Performance3Health3Dividend2

Mixed9 of 30 checks passed

Starbucks passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
3/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
2/6

What stands out

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 53.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 14.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 5.4 times.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 37.5% of total debt.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 117% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $109.89 is above our fair value estimate of $50.56.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -16.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Valuation0/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Starbucks's P/E of 63.2 is above its own 5-year median of 31.3.

  • P/E above the industry

    Starbucks's P/E of 63.2 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Starbucks's EV/EBITDA of 29.1 is above its 5-year median of 18.9.

  • P/S above the industry

    Starbucks's price-to-sales of 3.27 is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 0.73 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $109.89 is above our fair value estimate of $50.56.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 117% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -16.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -24.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 14.9% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 4.5% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.

  • Guidance raised

    Starbucks raised its Year Ended Sep 27, 2026 Diluted net earnings per share (GAAP) outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance3/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 53.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 14.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 5.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.3%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Starbucks's net margin of 5.2% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.

Financial health3/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 37.5% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 5.4 times.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.76 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.27; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend2/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Starbucks paid dividends worth 2.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Starbucks yields 2.3%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Not covered by earnings

    Dividends take 142% of net income, leaving little room.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 77.2% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$50.56

The share price is 117% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$109.89Price$50.56Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E29.9×31.3×28.5×$52.0144%
EV/EBITDA15.6×18.9×12.3×$55.0739%
Earnings power9.7% cost of equity––$36.1717%
Fair value$50.56100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 31.3
  • Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$929.56M
Value traded per 1% price move
$620.83M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
11.5%
Volatility (annualized)
28%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.92
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.97

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026

Gross margin

–

Operating margin

9.7%−7.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

6.7%−7.8 pts over 5 years

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