Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $225.47MP/E 7.3Yield 21.36%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 17 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 0/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $8.80 is below our fair value estimate of $19.55.
P/E below its 5-year median
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's P/E of 7.3 is below its own 5-year median of 7.7.
P/E below the industry
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's P/E of 7.3 is below the Miscellaneous Investing median of 26.3.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -2.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.73; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 151% of net income, leaving little room.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's P/E of 7.3 is below its own 5-year median of 7.7.
P/E below the industry
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's P/E of 7.3 is below the Miscellaneous Investing median of 26.3.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's price-to-book of 0.74 is below the Miscellaneous Investing median of 1.20.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $8.80 is below our fair value estimate of $19.55.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth0/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -2.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growth against the industry
Needs revenue for this year and last.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (full year 2026 dividend payout ratio based on Distributable Earnings per weighted average diluted share, Aug 11, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's return on equity of 8.8% is above the Miscellaneous Investing median of 3.1%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.73; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance paid dividends worth 21.4% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 21.4% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance yields 21.4%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 151% of net income, leaving little room.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$19.55
The share price is 55% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.3× | 7.7× | 26.3× | $23.16 | 62% |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.0× | 1.2× | $13.15 | 15% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $14.17 | 23% |
| Fair value | $19.55 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 7.7
- Miscellaneous Investing median 26.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $1.50M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.09M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 15.1%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 26%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -1.35
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.48
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins need revenue and profit figures
This company does not report the lines needed to calculate margins.
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -2.8% | +3.7% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -10.6% | -2.6% | – | – | |
| Dividend per share | -8.7% | -3.6% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
5 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2021 | FY2021 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | 11.7% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 8.4% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 21M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 66.1% | 0.16× | 1.18× | 12.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$36.01M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$28.79M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year10.3% → 8.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$28.79M vs $36.01M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise20M → 21M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose– → –
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