Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 5, 2026Market cap $308.99MP/E 3.0Yield 41.49%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 0/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 82.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $2.41 is below our fair value estimate of $13.82.
No debt
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 47.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -3.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -21.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -0.55; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's P/E of 3.0 is below its own 5-year median of 10.1.
P/E below the industry
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's P/E of 3.0 is below the Miscellaneous Investing median of 26.3.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's price-to-book of 0.25 is below the Miscellaneous Investing median of 1.20.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $2.41 is below our fair value estimate of $13.82.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 82.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth0/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -3.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -21.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -14.7% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Investing median is 4.6%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's return on equity of 8.5% is above the Miscellaneous Investing median of 3.1%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 47.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 55.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 38.0%.
Net margin above the industry
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's net margin of 55.5% is above the Miscellaneous Investing median of 10.3%.
Financial health4/6
No debt
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -0.55; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance paid dividends worth 176% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 176% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance yields 176%.
Dividend was cut
The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 107% of net income, leaving little room.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$13.82
The share price is 83% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.2× | 10.1× | 26.3× | $14.54 | 62% |
| P/B | 1.0× | 0.7× | 1.2× | $9.32 | 15% |
| Earnings power | 10.8% cost of equity | – | – | $14.90 | 23% |
| Fair value | $13.82 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 10.1
- Miscellaneous Investing median 26.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $24.94M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $10.14M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 48.6%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 75%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -1.07
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.18
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -10.6% | -3.7% | -0.5% | – | |
| Net income | – | -21.8% | +47.1% | +2.1% | |
| EPS, diluted | – | -21.6% | +140.8% | -6.2% | |
| Dividend per share | -16.7% | -10.6% | -7.2% | -6.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 9.5% | 0.8% | 6.8% | |
| Return on assets | 5.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| Diluted shares | 73M | 148M | 139M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 46.7% | 0.03× | 4.91× | 6.8% |
| FY2024 | -39.4% | 0.03× | 4.34× | -5.9% |
| FY2023 | 16.9% | 0.04× | 4.13× | 2.5% |
| FY2022 | 87.4% | 0.03× | 3.87× | 11.4% |
| FY2021 | 78.6% | 0.04× | 3.36× | 9.8% |
| FY2020 | 6.6% | 0.04× | 2.82× | 0.8% |
| FY2019 | 68.8% | 0.06× | 2.33× | 9.0% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$126.72M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$142.52M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-1.3% → 1.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$142.52M vs $126.72M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise140M → 139M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.03 → 0.03
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