Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $3.61BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed12 of 30 checks passed
Pattern passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 14 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 40.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Pattern has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 23.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $20.36 is above our fair value estimate of $16.47.
P/B above the industry
Pattern's price-to-book of 5.47 is above the Nonstore Retailers median of 3.15.
No dividend
Pattern has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Pattern's price-to-book of 5.47 is above the Nonstore Retailers median of 3.15.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $20.36 is above our fair value estimate of $16.47.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 23.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 42.1% over the last twelve months; the Nonstore Retailers median is 5.9%.
Guidance raised
Pattern raised its full year 2026 Revenues outlook on May 6, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 43.7% over the last twelve months, against 43.5% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 40.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Pattern's return on equity of 19.6% is above the Nonstore Retailers median of 1.4%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin above the industry
Pattern's net margin of 3.6% is above the Nonstore Retailers median of -0.2%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Pattern has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.32 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 8.82; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Pattern has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$16.47
The share price is 24% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8× | – | 17.8× | $17.83 | 78% |
| P/B | 3.1× | – | 3.1× | $11.72 | 22% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 13.5% cost of equity | – | – | $2.34 | – |
| Fair value | $16.47 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- EV/EBITDA at month end
- Nonstore Retailers median 17.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $21.92M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $10.77M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 67%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.16
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.72
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2022 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +39.3% | – | – | – | |
| Gross profit | +39.6% | – | – | – | |
| Operating income | -70.9% | – | – | – | |
| Net income | -76.1% | – | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +58.2% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
4 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2022 | FY2022 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | 4.7% | |
| Current ratio | – | – | 2.34 | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | 110.0× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 0.8% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 115M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Pattern does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.6% | 3.10× | 2.34× | 4.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$16.25M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$99.41M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year– → 2.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$99.41M vs $16.25M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.17 → 2.34
- No dilutionShare count did not rise91M → 115M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year43.50% → 43.59%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose– → 3.76
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