Wayfair Inc. (W) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $15.67BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak4 of 30 checks passed
Wayfair passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 18 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.5% of total debt.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.59; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 7.9% over the last twelve months; the Nonstore Retailers median is 5.9%.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -4.9%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 143% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $114.43 is above our fair value estimate of $47.00.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
P/S above the industry
Wayfair's price-to-sales of 1.19 is above the Nonstore Retailers median of 0.56 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/S above the industry
Wayfair's price-to-sales of 1.19 is above the Nonstore Retailers median of 0.56 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading above fair value
The share price of $114.43 is above our fair value estimate of $47.00.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 143% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 7.9% over the last twelve months; the Nonstore Retailers median is 5.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 30.0% over the last twelve months, against 30.2% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -4.9%.
Net margin below the industry
Wayfair's net margin of -1.2% is below the Nonstore Retailers median of -0.2%.
Financial health2/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.5% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.67 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.59; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Wayfair has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$47.00
The share price is 143% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8× | – | 17.8× | $60.77 | 70% |
| Earnings power | 14.9% cost of equity | – | – | $14.87 | 30% |
| Fair value | $47.00 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- EV/EBITDA at month end
- Nonstore Retailers median 17.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $241.48M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $110.88M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 29.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 69%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.04
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 2.75
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.1% | +0.6% | -2.5% | +18.7% | |
| Gross profit | +5.3% | +3.3% | -1.7% | +21.4% | |
| Operating income | – | – | -45.7% | – | |
| Free cash flow | +90.2% | – | -17.7% | +17.8% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -120.8% | -17.3% | 11.3% | |
| Return on assets | -26.7% | 4.9% | -9.1% | |
| Current ratio | 0.86 | 1.41 | 0.94 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | -1.18 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 5.58× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | 0.1× | |
| Inventory turnover | 133.8× | 176.5× | 118.3× | |
| Capex to revenue | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| Diluted shares | 85M | 99M | 128M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Wayfair generated $2.28B from operations and spent $953.00M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 61% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -2.5% | 3.61× | -1.25× | 11.3% |
| FY2024 | -4.2% | 3.42× | -1.27× | 18.0% |
| FY2023 | -6.1% | 3.40× | -1.34× | 28.1% |
| FY2022 | -10.9% | 3.00× | -1.95× | 63.9% |
| FY2021 | -1.0% | 3.00× | -3.25× | 9.3% |
| FY2020 | 1.3% | 3.76× | -3.52× | -17.3% |
| FY2019 | -10.8% | 3.77× | -3.80× | 154.5% |
| FY2018 | -7.4% | 4.37× | -8.18× | 265.8% |
| FY2017 | -5.2% | 4.78× | 63.60× | -1575.4% |
| FY2016 | -5.8% | 4.64× | 4.52× | -120.8% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$313.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$534.00M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-14.2% → -9.0%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$534.00M vs -$313.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell83.3% → 94.0%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.79 → 0.94
- No dilutionShare count did not rise123M → 128M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year30.16% → 30.22%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose3.41 → 3.60
See a number that looks wrong?