Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $1.51BP/E 10.5Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak8 of 30 checks passed
Mach Natural Resources LP passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 16 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $9.10 is below our fair value estimate of $10.79.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 50.8% of total debt.
P/S below the industry
Mach Natural Resources LP's price-to-sales of 1.09 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.68 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 36.7% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 15.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 2.5 times; we look for at least 5.
P/E above the industry
Mach Natural Resources LP's P/E of 10.6 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.4.
Valuation2/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Mach Natural Resources LP's P/E of 10.6 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.4.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/S below the industry
Mach Natural Resources LP's price-to-sales of 1.09 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.68 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading below fair value
The share price of $9.10 is below our fair value estimate of $10.79.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 15.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 36.7% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (Full-Year 2026 total net production, Mar 12, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 10.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 26.1%.
Net margin above the industry
Mach Natural Resources LP's net margin of 10.5% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 50.8% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 2.5 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.79 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)
Needs market value, working capital and retained earnings.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Mach Natural Resources LP paid dividends worth 19.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 19.8% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Mach Natural Resources LP yields 19.8%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$10.79
The share price is 16% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.4× | – | 10.4× | $8.91 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3× | – | 5.3× | $12.94 | 47% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $40.69 | – |
| Fair value | $10.79 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $5.25M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $5.67M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 17.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 31%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.83
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.21
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2020 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +21.2% | +7.8% | – | – | |
| Operating income | -15.8% | -22.3% | – | – | |
| Net income | -22.8% | -34.8% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -42.6% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
6 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2020 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets | – | – | 4.7% | |
| Current ratio | – | – | 1.05 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 2.05× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | 3.4× | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 132M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Mach Natural Resources LP does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont needs revenue, assets and equity
This company does not report all three for consecutive years.
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$142.98M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$506.96M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.0% → 6.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$506.96M vs $142.98M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell28.6% → 30.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.91 → 1.05
- No dilutionShare count did not rise98M → 132M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.42 → 0.50
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