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Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) stock analysis

REPXNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural GasFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 4, 2026Score 15/3027% below fair value
$42.83+1.58 (+3.83%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $948.85MP/E 9.2Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth3Performance4Health3Dividend1

Solid15 of 30 checks passed

Riley Exploration Permian passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
1/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 26.7% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $42.83 is below our fair value estimate of $58.41.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 16.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 23.8% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 23.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

What to watch

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.09; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Riley Exploration Permian's P/E of 9.2 is above its own 5-year median of 5.9.

  • P/B above the industry

    Riley Exploration Permian's price-to-book of 1.52 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 17.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.1%.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Riley Exploration Permian's P/E of 9.2 is above its own 5-year median of 5.9.

  • P/E below the industry

    Riley Exploration Permian's P/E of 9.2 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.4.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Riley Exploration Permian's EV/EBITDA of 3.1 is below its 5-year median of 4.3.

  • P/B above the industry

    Riley Exploration Permian's price-to-book of 1.52 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $42.83 is below our fair value estimate of $58.41.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 26.7% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth3/6
  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 331% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 45.5% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.

  • Guidance raised

    Riley Exploration Permian raised its Q3 2026 Total Investments outlook on Aug 5, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance4/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 16.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 23.8% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 23.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Riley Exploration Permian's return on equity of 16.8% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 17.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.1%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Riley Exploration Permian's net margin of 17.3% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.

Financial health3/6
  • Low debt

    Debt is 38.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt rising against equity

    Debt to equity rose from 1.7% five years ago to 38.4%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 119% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 9.5 times.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.41 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.09; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend1/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Riley Exploration Permian paid dividends worth 2.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.8% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Riley Exploration Permian yields 2.8%.

  • Dividend stability

    Fewer than five years of dividend history.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$58.41

The share price is 27% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$42.83Price$58.41Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E8.1×5.9×10.4×$37.7240%
EV/EBITDA4.8×4.3×5.3×$71.0635%
P/B1.4×1.4×1.3×$38.5910%
Earnings power10.3% cost of equity––$97.2815%
Fair value$58.41100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 5.9
  • Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.4

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$12.05M
Value traded per 1% price move
$5.50M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
14.1%
Volatility (annualized)
47%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.45
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.08

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2008 to 2025

Operating margin

34.0%+51.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

41.0%+53.3 pts over 5 years

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