Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E against the industry

Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

EV/EBITDA against its history

Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

P/B above the industry

Northern Oil & Gas's price-to-book of 1.42 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $24.32 is below our fair value estimate of $27.05.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 10.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing 10%+ a year

Revenue grew 16.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -64.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew -28.3% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.

Guidance raised

Northern Oil & Gas raised its Revised FY 2026 General and Administrative Expense (per Boe): Cash (excluding transaction costs on non-budgeted acquisitions) outlook on Aug 6, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 69.5% over the last twelve months, against 80.2% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was -23.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 63.2% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was -16.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity below the industry

Northern Oil & Gas's return on equity of -23.0% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was -27.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 23.6%.

Net margin below the industry

Northern Oil & Gas's net margin of -27.5% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.

Debt level

Needs debt and equity figures.

Debt trend

Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

Debt coverage

Needs operating cash flow.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense -2.4 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.59 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 0.39; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Northern Oil & Gas paid dividends worth 7.4% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield above Treasuries

The 7.4% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Northern Oil & Gas yields 7.4%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.