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MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) stock analysis

MAXNYSEServices-Business Services, NECFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 14/3059% below fair value
$14.97+0.60 (+4.18%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $886.11MP/E 8.3Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth2Performance4Health4Dividend0

Mixed14 of 30 checks passed

MediaAlpha passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 12 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 59.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $14.97 is below our fair value estimate of $36.93.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 71.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 34.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • High debt

    Debt is 341% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • P/B above the industry

    MediaAlpha's price-to-book of 17.26 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.48.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 14.8% over the last twelve months, against 15.3% a year earlier.

  • No dividend

    MediaAlpha has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

Valuation4/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E below the industry

    MediaAlpha's P/E of 8.3 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 25.8.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    MediaAlpha's EV/EBITDA of 10.8 is below its 5-year median of 21.0.

  • P/B above the industry

    MediaAlpha's price-to-book of 17.26 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.48.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $14.97 is below our fair value estimate of $36.93.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 59.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 34.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 15.2% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.9%.

  • Guidance issued

    The latest outlook (fourth quarter of 2026 Revenue, Oct 28, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 14.8% over the last twelve months, against 15.3% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 71.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    MediaAlpha's return on equity of 1002% is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 6.8%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 8.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -3.9%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    MediaAlpha's net margin of 8.4% is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 3.8%.

Financial health4/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 341% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 31.5% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 8.8 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.32 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 4.45; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    MediaAlpha has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$36.93

The share price is 59% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$14.97Price$36.93Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E25.8×–25.8×$46.4053%
EV/EBITDA18.2×21.0×15.7×$26.1047%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others9.2% cost of equity––$7.99–
Fair value$36.93100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Miscellaneous Business Services median 25.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$15.24M
Value traded per 1% price move
$4.08M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
31.6%
Volatility (annualized)
57%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.20
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.87

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Gross margin

15.0%+0.4 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

2.0%−1.4 pts over 5 years

Net margin

2.3%+3.0 pts over 5 years

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