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Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) stock analysis

LADNYSERetail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline StationsFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 13/3034% below fair value
$297.17−15.08 (-4.83%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $6.42BP/E 8.6Yield 0.73%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value5Growth2Performance2Health1Dividend3

Mixed13 of 30 checks passed

Lithia Motors passes 13 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
5/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 34.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $312.25 is below our fair value estimate of $475.73.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 17.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 11.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 11.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -11.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7% a year.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.16; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation5/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Lithia Motors's P/E of 9.0 is above its own 5-year median of 8.5.

  • P/E below the industry

    Lithia Motors's P/E of 9.0 is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.5.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Lithia Motors's EV/EBITDA of 3.6 is below its 5-year median of 4.7.

  • P/B below the industry

    Lithia Motors's price-to-book of 1.02 is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.37.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $312.25 is below our fair value estimate of $475.73.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 34.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 10.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -11.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 1.6% over the last twelve months; the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median is 1.5%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 15.1% over the last twelve months, against 15.2% a year earlier.

Past performance2/6
  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 11.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 17.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Lithia Motors's return on equity of 11.8% is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.4%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 11.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 2.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.3%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Lithia Motors's net margin of 2.1% is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.6%.

Financial health1/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt coverage

    Needs operating cash flow.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 5.7 times.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.00 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.16; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Lithia Motors paid dividends worth 0.6% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.6% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Lithia Motors yields 0.6%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 6.9% of net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$475.73

The share price is 34% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$312.25Price$475.73Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E10.5×8.5×12.5×$363.5347%
EV/EBITDA6.7×4.7×8.7×$581.9141%
P/B1.8×1.3×2.4×$552.9212%
Fair value$475.73100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 8.5
  • Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median 12.5

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$106.19M
Value traded per 1% price move
$49.26M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
21.4%
Volatility (annualized)
41%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.04
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.01

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

15.2%−1.7 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

4.2%−1.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

2.2%−1.4 pts over 5 years

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