Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $6.42BP/E 8.6Yield 0.73%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed13 of 30 checks passed
Lithia Motors passes 13 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 2/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 34.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $312.25 is below our fair value estimate of $475.73.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 17.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 11.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -11.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7% a year.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.16; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Valuation5/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Lithia Motors's P/E of 9.0 is above its own 5-year median of 8.5.
P/E below the industry
Lithia Motors's P/E of 9.0 is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.5.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Lithia Motors's EV/EBITDA of 3.6 is below its 5-year median of 4.7.
P/B below the industry
Lithia Motors's price-to-book of 1.02 is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.37.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $312.25 is below our fair value estimate of $475.73.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 34.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 10.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -11.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 1.6% over the last twelve months; the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median is 1.5%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 15.1% over the last twelve months, against 15.2% a year earlier.
Past performance2/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 17.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Lithia Motors's return on equity of 11.8% is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.4%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 11.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 2.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.3%.
Net margin below the industry
Lithia Motors's net margin of 2.1% is below the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.6%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 5.7 times.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.00 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.16; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Lithia Motors paid dividends worth 0.6% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 0.6% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Lithia Motors yields 0.6%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 6.9% of net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$475.73
The share price is 34% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.5× | 8.5× | 12.5× | $363.53 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7× | 4.7× | 8.7× | $581.91 | 41% |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.3× | 2.4× | $552.92 | 12% |
| Fair value | $475.73 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 8.5
- Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median 12.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $106.19M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $49.26M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 21.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 41%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.04
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.01
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.0% | +10.1% | +23.4% | +16.9% | |
| Gross profit | +3.1% | +3.6% | +20.8% | +17.2% | |
| Operating income | +1.7% | -6.3% | +18.1% | +18.1% | |
| Net income | +2.9% | -13.1% | +11.7% | +16.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | +9.7% | -9.9% | +10.6% | +16.7% | |
| Free cash flow | -92.1% | – | -56.6% | – | |
| Dividend per share | +4.3% | +10.6% | +12.3% | +11.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 22.7% | 22.8% | 12.4% | |
| Return on assets | 5.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | |
| Current ratio | 1.19 | 1.35 | 1.17 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.49 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.91× | 2.51× | 4.91× | |
| Interest coverage | 14.6× | 9.7× | 5.8× | |
| Inventory turnover | 4.5× | 4.4× | 5.3× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | |
| Diluted shares | 26M | 24M | 25M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Lithia Motors generated $3.66B from operations and spent $4.04B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 37% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2.2% | 1.56× | 3.64× | 12.4% |
| FY2024 | 2.2% | 1.69× | 3.32× | 12.4% |
| FY2023 | 3.2% | 1.79× | 3.03× | 17.5% |
| FY2022 | 4.4% | 2.16× | 2.66× | 25.4% |
| FY2021 | 4.6% | 2.40× | 2.61× | 29.1% |
| FY2020 | 3.6% | 1.88× | 3.39× | 22.8% |
| FY2019 | 2.1% | 2.21× | 4.30× | 20.4% |
| FY2018 | 2.2% | 2.35× | 4.41× | 23.3% |
| FY2017 | 2.4% | 2.37× | 4.28× | 24.6% |
| FY2016 | 2.3% | 2.46× | 4.07× | 22.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$819.60M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$356.70M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.1% → 3.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$356.70M vs $819.60M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell35.3% → 38.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.19 → 1.17
- No dilutionShare count did not rise27M → 25M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year15.37% → 15.23%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.84 → 1.63
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