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Ford Motor Co (F) stock analysis

FNYSEMotor Vehicles & Passenger Car BodiesFiscal year ends December 31Also trades as F.PB, F.PC, F.PD
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 8/3035% below fair value
$12.25−0.03 (-0.24%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $48.92BP/E –Yield 6.12%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth1Performance0Health1Dividend2

Weak8 of 30 checks passed

Ford Motor passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
2/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 34.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $12.25 is below our fair value estimate of $18.71.

  • Guidance raised

    Ford Motor raised its full-year 2026 Adjusted free cash flow outlook on Jul 28, 2026.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 46.7% of free cash flow.

What to watch

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -146%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -5.0 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.83; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Ford Motor's EV/EBITDA of 1.7 is below its 5-year median of 1.7.

  • P/B below the industry

    Ford Motor's price-to-book of 1.32 is below the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.56.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $12.25 is below our fair value estimate of $18.71.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 34.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -1.4% over the last twelve months; the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median is 5.5%.

  • Guidance raised

    Ford Motor raised its full-year 2026 Adjusted free cash flow outlook on Jul 28, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 8.4% over the last twelve months, against 13.4% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -146%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin against its history

    Needs five years of revenue and net income.

  • Net margin against the industry

    Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health1/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt coverage

    Needs operating cash flow.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -5.0 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.08 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.83; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend2/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Ford Motor paid dividends worth 3.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 3.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Ford Motor yields 3.7%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 46.7% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$18.71

The share price is 35% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$12.25Price$18.71Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA5.1×1.7×8.5×$19.7858%
P/B1.4×1.1×1.6×$12.5117%
Earnings power11.3% cost of equity––$20.3525%
Fair value$18.71100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 11.2
  • Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median 18.7

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$514.54M
Value traded per 1% price move
$373.26M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
17.7%
Volatility (annualized)
36%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.31
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.28

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

6.8%−4.5 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

-4.9%−1.4 pts over 5 years

Net margin

–

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