Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.54TP/E 429.5Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed11 of 30 checks passed
Tesla passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Low debt
Debt is 1.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 39.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 10.0 times.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 1427% of total debt.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 894% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $390.84 is above our fair value estimate of $39.33.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Valuation0/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Tesla's P/E of 429.5 is above its own 5-year median of 108.2.
P/E above the industry
Tesla's P/E of 429.5 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 18.7.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Tesla's EV/EBITDA of 433.2 is above its 5-year median of 91.9.
P/B above the industry
Tesla's price-to-book of 17.30 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.56.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $390.84 is above our fair value estimate of $39.33.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 894% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -33.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -36.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 39.4% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 8.3% over the last twelve months; the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median is 5.5%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 19.3% over the last twelve months, against 17.0% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Tesla's return on equity of 3.8% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 3.5%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 39.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 3.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.5%.
Net margin above the industry
Tesla's net margin of 3.1% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.9%.
Financial health6/6
Low debt
Debt is 1.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 7.9% five years ago to 1.5%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 1427% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 10.0 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.74 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 15.03; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Tesla has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$39.33
The share price is 894% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.0× | 108.2× | 18.7× | $40.95 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 91.9× | 8.5× | $37.47 | 47% |
| P/Bleft out, too far from the others | 8.9× | 16.1× | 1.6× | $200.15 | – |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 14.4% cost of equity | – | – | $8.28 | – |
| Fair value | $39.33 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 108
- Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median 18.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $14.29B
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $6.77B
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 21.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 46%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.36
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.91
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -2.9% | +5.2% | +24.6% | +37.1% | |
| Gross profit | -2.0% | -6.4% | +20.9% | +33.9% | |
| Operating income | -38.5% | -31.7% | +16.9% | – | |
| Net income | -46.5% | -32.9% | +39.4% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -47.1% | -33.2% | +38.8% | – | |
| Free cash flow | +73.7% | -6.3% | +17.4% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -23.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | |
| Return on assets | -4.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | |
| Current ratio | 1.07 | 1.88 | 2.16 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.47 | – | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | -18.85× | – | – | |
| Interest coverage | -3.4× | 2.7× | 12.9× | |
| Inventory turnover | 3.2× | 6.5× | 6.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | 18.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | |
| Diluted shares | 2.16B | 3.25B | 3.53B |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Tesla generated $69.15B from operations and spent $42.41B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.0% | 0.73× | 1.68× | 4.9% |
| FY2024 | 7.3% | 0.85× | 1.69× | 10.5% |
| FY2023 | 15.5% | 1.02× | 1.76× | 27.9% |
| FY2022 | 15.4% | 1.13× | 1.93× | 33.5% |
| FY2021 | 10.3% | 0.94× | 2.18× | 21.1% |
| FY2020 | 2.3% | 0.73× | 3.00× | 5.0% |
| FY2019 | -3.5% | 0.77× | 5.55× | -14.9% |
| FY2018 | -4.5% | 0.74× | 6.37× | -21.3% |
| FY2017 | -16.7% | 0.46× | 5.71× | -43.6% |
| FY2016 | -9.6% | 0.46× | 5.27× | -23.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$3.79B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$14.75B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year6.7% → 3.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$14.75B vs $3.79B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.02 → 2.16
- No dilutionShare count did not rise3.50B → 3.53B
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year17.86% → 18.03%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.92 → 0.78
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