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Dow Inc. (DOW) stock analysis

DOWNYSEPlastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan ElastomersFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 23, 2026Score 8/3013% below fair value
$32.54+1.06 (+3.37%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $23.56BP/E –Yield 2.15%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value2Growth1Performance0Health3Dividend2

Weak8 of 30 checks passed

Dow passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 14 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
2/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
2/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $32.54 is below our fair value estimate of $37.61.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 26.1% of total debt.

  • P/B below the industry

    Dow's price-to-book of 1.46 is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of 1.50.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 11.1% over the last twelve months, against 7.1% a year earlier.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.5% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • High debt

    Debt is 108% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -11.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 1.58; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation2/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Dow's EV/EBITDA of 12.0 is above its 5-year median of 8.9.

  • P/B below the industry

    Dow's price-to-book of 1.46 is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of 1.50.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $32.54 is below our fair value estimate of $37.61.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.5% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -11.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 4.2% over the last twelve months; the Chemicals and Allied Products median is 5.7%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 11.1% over the last twelve months, against 7.1% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin against its history

    Needs five years of revenue and net income.

  • Net margin against the industry

    Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health3/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 108% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 138% five years ago to 108%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 26.1% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.76 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 1.58; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend2/6

  • Pays a dividend

    Dow paid dividends worth 4.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 4.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield in the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Dow yields 4.3%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 9 fiscal years.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$37.61

The share price is 13% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$32.54Price$37.61Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA12.7×8.9×16.6×$37.6078%
P/B1.7×1.9×1.5×$37.6622%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others8.4% cost of equity––$7.72–
Fair value$37.61100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 19.5
  • Chemicals and Allied Products median 25.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$266.96M
Value traded per 1% price move
$164.41M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
18.2%
Volatility (annualized)
42%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.03
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.71

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2016 to 2025

Gross margin

6.3%−7.1 pts over 5 years

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