Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $24.95BP/E 98.4Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak7 of 30 checks passed
Axon Enterprise passes 7 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.02; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
P/E below its 5-year median
Axon Enterprise's P/E of 101.1 is below its own 5-year median of 136.9.
Guidance raised
Axon Enterprise raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook on Aug 5, 2026.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 213% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $315.42 is above our fair value estimate of $100.83.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 7.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 8.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 1.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Valuation1/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Axon Enterprise's P/E of 101.1 is below its own 5-year median of 136.9.
P/E above the industry
Axon Enterprise's P/E of 101.1 is above the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 22.3.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Axon Enterprise's EV/EBITDA of 140.5 is above its 5-year median of 128.3.
P/B above the industry
Axon Enterprise's price-to-book of 6.81 is above the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 2.80.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $315.42 is above our fair value estimate of $100.83.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 213% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -9.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 33.6% over the last twelve months; the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median is 10.2%.
Guidance raised
Axon Enterprise raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook on Aug 5, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 58.5% over the last twelve months, against 60.3% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 7.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 8.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 1.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Axon Enterprise's return on equity of 7.6% is below the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 9.0%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 7.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 7.9%.
Net margin above the industry
Axon Enterprise's net margin of 7.6% is above the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 4.5%.
Financial health2/6
High debt
Debt is 76.2% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 7.9% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 3.00 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.02; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Axon Enterprise has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$100.83
The share price is 213% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.0× | 136.9× | 22.3× | $140.40 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 128.3× | 12.6× | $55.60 | 47% |
| P/Bleft out, too far from the others | 7.3× | 11.7× | 2.8× | $338.60 | – |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 12.5% cost of equity | – | – | $21.52 | – |
| Fair value | $100.83 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 137
- Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median 22.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $511.11M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $181.18M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 32.2%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 64%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.78
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.53
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +33.5% | +32.8% | +32.5% | +30.2% | |
| Gross profit | +33.6% | +31.7% | +31.8% | +29.1% | |
| Net income | -66.9% | -5.3% | – | +20.1% | |
| EPS, diluted | -68.5% | -9.4% | – | +15.4% | |
| Free cash flow | -77.2% | -25.2% | – | +6.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 11.2% | -0.2% | 4.5% | |
| Return on assets | 6.8% | -0.2% | 2.2% | |
| Current ratio | 2.27 | 3.83 | 2.53 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | 0.56 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 28.91× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | -0.7× | |
| Inventory turnover | 3.9× | 4.1× | 3.7× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.8% | 10.7% | 4.9% | |
| Diluted shares | 54M | 62M | 82M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Axon Enterprise generated $1.17B from operations and spent $380.37M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.5% | 0.48× | 2.06× | 4.5% |
| FY2024 | 18.1% | 0.53× | 2.00× | 19.1% |
| FY2023 | 11.3% | 0.50× | 2.17× | 12.2% |
| FY2022 | 12.4% | 0.52× | 1.96× | 12.7% |
| FY2021 | -6.5% | 0.56× | 1.51× | -5.6% |
| FY2020 | -0.3% | 0.61× | 1.47× | -0.2% |
| FY2019 | 0.2% | 0.68× | 1.55× | 0.2% |
| FY2018 | 7.0% | 0.79× | 1.67× | 9.2% |
| FY2017 | 1.5% | 1.12× | 1.94× | 3.3% |
| FY2016 | 6.4% | 1.06× | 1.65× | 11.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$124.66M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$211.34M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year11.1% → 2.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$211.34M vs $124.66M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell0.0% → 24.7%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.37 → 2.53
- No dilutionShare count did not rise79M → 82M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year59.61% → 59.65%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.61 → 0.62
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