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AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) stock analysis

AMSFNasdaqFire, Marine & Casualty InsuranceFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 30, 2026Score 14/3032% below fair value
$19.31−0.58 (-2.92%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $357.87MP/E 9.0Yield 8.08%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value6Growth1Performance3Health0Dividend4

Mixed14 of 30 checks passed

Amerisafe passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
6/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
3/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 31.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $19.31 is below our fair value estimate of $28.19.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 15.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 18.1% over five years.

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Amerisafe's P/E of 9.0 is below its own 5-year median of 15.5.

What to watch

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 11.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -5.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -19.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -11.5% a year.

Valuation6/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Amerisafe's P/E of 9.0 is below its own 5-year median of 15.5.

  • P/E below the industry

    Amerisafe's P/E of 9.0 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 10.4.

  • P/S below the industry

    Amerisafe's price-to-sales of 1.07 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.28.

  • P/B below the industry

    Amerisafe's price-to-book of 1.51 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.62.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $19.31 is below our fair value estimate of $28.19.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 31.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -5.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -19.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -11.5% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 7.7% over the last twelve months; the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median is 5.0%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin trend

    Banks and insurers do not report gross profit.

Past performance3/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 15.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 18.1% over five years.

  • Return on assets over 1%

    Return on assets was 3.5%; for a bank or insurer, 1% or more is considered good.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Amerisafe's return on equity of 15.8% is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 15.9%.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 11.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 12.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 18.5%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Amerisafe's net margin of 12.1% is above the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 12.0%.

Financial health0/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt coverage

    Needs operating cash flow.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term liquidity

    Insurers do not split assets into current and non-current.

  • Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)

    The Altman model does not apply to insurers.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Amerisafe paid dividends worth 13.6% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield above Treasuries

    The 13.6% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield in the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Amerisafe yields 13.6%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Not covered by earnings

    Dividends take 157% of net income, leaving little room.

  • Not covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 514% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$28.19

The share price is 32% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$19.31Price$28.19Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E13.0×15.5×10.4×$27.8850%
P/B2.2×2.8×1.6×$28.5150%
Fair value$28.19100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 15.5
  • Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median 10.4

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$9.59M
Value traded per 1% price move
$7.57M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
20.0%
Volatility (annualized)
33%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-1.76
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.35

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Net margin

14.9%−10.6 pts over 5 years

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