Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP.A) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E against the industry

Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

EV/EBITDA against its history

Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

P/B below the industry

Molson Coors Beverage's price-to-book of 0.70 is below the Beverages median of 3.07.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $40.12 is below our fair value estimate of $101.37.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 60.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growth over 3 years

Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew -2.6% over the last twelve months; the Beverages median is 5.3%.

Guidance raised

Molson Coors Beverage raised its full year 2025 Underlying (Non-GAAP) depreciation and amortization outlook on Nov 4, 2025.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 31.7% over the last twelve months, against 32.9% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was -19.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 0.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was -11.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity below the industry

Molson Coors Beverage's return on equity of -19.6% is below the Beverages median of 9.2%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was -17.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.1%.

Net margin below the industry

Molson Coors Beverage's net margin of -17.8% is below the Beverages median of 7.1%.

High debt

Debt is 76.2% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 66.5% five years ago to 76.2%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 25.6% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense -9.9 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.88 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 0.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Molson Coors Beverage paid dividends worth 4.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield above Treasuries

The 4.8% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 4.0% or more; Molson Coors Beverage yields 4.8%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 27.7% of free cash flow.