Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HGMCF) stock analysis
Close on Oct 19, 2026Market cap $12.35BP/E 14.1Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Oct 30, 2026How the score works
Mixed12 of 30 checks passed
Harmony Gold Mining passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 16 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 32.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 17.0% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 37.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 4.0% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 20.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 20.4% over the last twelve months; the Materials median is 51.1%.
No dividend
Harmony Gold Mining has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B against the industry
Needs positive book value.
Price against fair value
We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.
Margin of safety
Depends on the fair value estimate.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 20.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 20.4% over the last twelve months; the Materials median is 51.1%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 32.8% over the last twelve months, against 23.0% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 32.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 17.0% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 37.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Harmony Gold Mining's return on equity of 32.3% is above the Materials median of -8.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 19.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.6%.
Net margin above the industry
Harmony Gold Mining's net margin of 19.5% is above the Materials median of 10.8%.
Financial health5/6
Low debt
Debt is 4.0% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 33.0% five years ago to 4.0%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 1160% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 29.2 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.72 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)
Needs market value, working capital and retained earnings.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Harmony Gold Mining has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itWe don't publish a fair value for Harmony Gold Mining. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $57.12M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $24.58M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 33.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 63%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.25
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.93
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2016 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +20.4% | +20.1% | +20.4% | – | |
| Gross profit | +71.5% | +223.3% | +48.7% | – | |
| Operating income | +74.3% | – | – | – | |
| Net income | +67.5% | – | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +67.7% | – | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +48.8% | +147.7% | +57.5% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -3.8% | 32.3% | |
| Return on assets | – | -2.2% | 20.9% | |
| Current ratio | – | 1.34 | 1.72 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 0.33 | 0.04 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 0.43× | -0.44× | |
| Interest coverage | – | -0.5× | 29.2× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 11.8× | 13.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 12.3% | 16.0% | |
| Diluted shares | 446M | 547M | 629M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Harmony Gold Mining generated 64.35B ZAR from operations and spent 44.05B ZAR on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 89% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 19.5% | 1.07× | 1.55× | 32.3% |
| FY2024 | 14.0% | 1.04× | 1.56× | 22.7% |
| FY2023 | 9.8% | 0.95× | 1.61× | 14.9% |
| FY2022 | -2.5% | 0.89× | 1.56× | -3.4% |
| FY2021 | 12.2% | 0.89× | 1.71× | 18.7% |
| FY2020 | -3.0% | 0.72× | 1.77× | -3.8% |
| FY2019 | -9.7% | 0.71× | 1.59× | -10.9% |
| FY2018 | -21.9% | 0.52× | 1.43× | -16.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero14.38B ZAR
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero22.65B ZAR
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year15.0% → 23.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income22.65B ZAR vs 14.38B ZAR
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell3.0% → 2.4%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.56 → 1.72
- No dilutionShare count did not rise630M → 629M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year23.05% → 32.83%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.07 → 1.22