Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLDDW) stock analysis
Close on Oct 30, 2026Market cap $29.44MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Oct 30, 2026How the score works
Weak4 of 30 checks passed
Fold passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 21 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 0/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $0.53 is below our fair value estimate of $1.20.
P/B below the industry
Fold's price-to-book of 0.94 is below the Finance services median of 1.04.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.84 times current liabilities.
What to watch
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -3.82; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -2.5% over the last twelve months; the Finance services median is 15.9%.
Return on equity below the industry
Fold's return on equity of -122% is below the Finance services median of -34.6%.
Net margin below the industry
Fold's net margin of -259% is below the Finance services median of -68.3%.
Valuation3/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
Fold's price-to-book of 0.94 is below the Finance services median of 1.04.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $0.53 is below our fair value estimate of $1.20.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth0/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -2.5% over the last twelve months; the Finance services median is 15.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Fold's return on equity of -122% is below the Finance services median of -34.6%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin below the industry
Fold's net margin of -259% is below the Finance services median of -68.3%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.84 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -3.82; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Fold has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$1.20
The share price is 56% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 1.0× | – | 1.0× | $0.59 | 50% |
| P/S | 3.5× | – | 3.5× | $1.81 | 50% |
| Fair value | $1.20 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/B at month end
- Finance services median 1.0
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $51.57K
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $19.72K
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 54.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 101%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.89
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.24
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2021 to 2025
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +33.9% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
5 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2021 | FY2021 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | 2888.6% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | -49.9% | |
| Current ratio | 17.52 | 17.52 | 0.86 | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 42M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Fold does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -218.9% | 0.23× | -57.93× | 2888.6% |
| FY2024 | -274.0% | 0.16× | -3.82× | 170.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$69.59M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero-$16.12M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-39.2% → -55.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income-$16.12M vs -$69.59M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.29 → 0.86
- No dilutionShare count did not rise6M → 42M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.14 → 0.25