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Valvoline Inc (VVV) stock analysis

VVVNYSEMiscellaneous Products of Petroleum & CoalFiscal year ends September 30
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Aug 5, 2026Score 7/30107% above fair value
$35.90+0.17 (+0.48%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $4.58BP/E 45.4Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value1Growth2Performance3Health1Dividend0

Weak7 of 30 checks passed

Valvoline passes 7 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
1/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
3/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 27.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 475% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 10.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 25.4% of total debt.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 107% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $35.90 is above our fair value estimate of $17.31.

  • High debt

    Debt is 384% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 7.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Valuation1/6

  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Valvoline's P/E of 45.4 is above its own 5-year median of 15.8.

  • P/E above the industry

    Valvoline's P/E of 45.4 is above the Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median of 14.5.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Valvoline's EV/EBITDA of 20.3 is below its 5-year median of 22.4.

  • P/B above the industry

    Valvoline's price-to-book of 10.99 is above the Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median of 2.75.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $35.90 is above our fair value estimate of $17.31.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 107% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -11.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -63.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -7.8% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 16.1% over the last twelve months; the Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median is 17.0%.

  • Guidance raised

    Valvoline raised its fiscal 2026 Net revenues outlook on Aug 5, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 38.3% over the last twelve months, against 38.5% a year earlier.

Past performance3/6

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 27.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 475% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 10.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Valvoline's return on equity of 27.8% is above the Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median of 17.7%.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 7.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 5.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 39.7%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Valvoline's net margin of 5.2% is below the Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median of 5.6%.

Financial health1/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 384% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 25.4% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.70 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 1.85; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Valvoline has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$17.31

The share price is 107% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$35.90Price$17.31Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E15.1×15.8×14.5×$11.9653%
EV/EBITDA15.0×22.4×7.4×$23.4147%
Fair value$17.31100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 15.8
  • Petroleum Refining and Related Industries median 14.5

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$86.55M
Value traded per 1% price move
$48.33M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
18.5%
Volatility (annualized)
35%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.29
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.79

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2014 to 2025

Gross margin

38.5%−2.9 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

22.8%+0.8 pts over 5 years

Net margin

12.3%−31.2 pts over 5 years

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