Vistra Corp. (VST) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Vistra's P/E of 18.0 is below its own 5-year median of 27.7.

P/E below the industry

Vistra's P/E of 18.0 is below the Electric Services median of 20.9.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Vistra's EV/EBITDA of 10.0 is below its 5-year median of 13.5.

P/B above the industry

Vistra's price-to-book of 7.10 is above the Electric Services median of 2.02.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $133.45 is below our fair value estimate of $166.91.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 20.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 8.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growth over 3 years

Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

Earnings growth accelerating

Net income grew 135% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.2% a year.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 19.8% over the last twelve months; the Electric Services median is 7.8%.

Guidance lowered

Vistra lowered its 2026 Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance outlook on May 7, 2026.

Gross margin trend

This company does not report gross profit.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 47.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 14.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Vistra's return on equity of 47.0% is above the Electric Services median of 8.3%.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 8.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin above its 5-year average

Net margin was 13.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.3%.

Net margin above the industry

Vistra's net margin of 13.1% is above the Electric Services median of 8.8%.

High debt

Debt is 335% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 111% five years ago to 335%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.2% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 3.8 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.16 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.58; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Vistra paid dividends worth 0.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 0.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Vistra yields 0.7%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 5 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 11.4% of net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 11.8% of free cash flow.