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United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) stock analysis

UFCSNasdaqFire, Marine & Casualty InsuranceFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 4, 2026Score 11/301% above fair value
$51.17−0.34 (-0.66%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.32BP/E 9.8Yield 1.25%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth3Performance2Health0Dividend2

Mixed11 of 30 checks passed

United Fire passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
2/6

What stands out

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 12.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 96.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    United Fire's P/E of 9.8 is below its own 5-year median of 10.9.

  • P/E below the industry

    United Fire's P/E of 9.8 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 10.4.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 0.8% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $51.17 is above our fair value estimate of $50.76.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 5.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Valuation4/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    United Fire's P/E of 9.8 is below its own 5-year median of 10.9.

  • P/E below the industry

    United Fire's P/E of 9.8 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 10.4.

  • P/S below the industry

    United Fire's price-to-sales of 0.87 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.28.

  • P/B below the industry

    United Fire's price-to-book of 1.40 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.62.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $51.17 is above our fair value estimate of $50.76.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 0.8% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth3/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 12.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 96.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 11.6% over the last twelve months; the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median is 5.0%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin trend

    Banks and insurers do not report gross profit.

Past performance2/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 5.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on assets over 1%

    Return on assets was 3.5%; for a bank or insurer, 1% or more is considered good.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    United Fire's return on equity of 14.9% is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 15.9%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 9.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.0%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    United Fire's net margin of 9.1% is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 12.0%.

Financial health0/6

  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt coverage

    Needs operating cash flow.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term liquidity

    Insurers do not split assets into current and non-current.

  • Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)

    The Altman model does not apply to insurers.

Dividend2/6

  • Pays a dividend

    United Fire paid dividends worth 1.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 1.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; United Fire yields 1.5%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 14.2% of net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$50.76

The share price is 1% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$51.17Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E10.7×10.9×10.4×$55.7950%
P/B1.3×0.9×1.6×$45.7250%
Fair value$50.76100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 10.9
  • Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median 10.4

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$7.47M
Value traded per 1% price move
$6.29M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
9.1%
Volatility (annualized)
31%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.17
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.50

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Net margin

8.5%+19.1 pts over 5 years

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