Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $7.51BP/E 23.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
Trade Desk passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 59.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $15.98 is below our fair value estimate of $39.48.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 27.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Trade Desk has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 12.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -24.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.8% a year.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.45; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 7.0% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Trade Desk's P/E of 23.2 is below its own 5-year median of 185.8.
P/E below the industry
Trade Desk's P/E of 23.2 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Trade Desk's EV/EBITDA of 9.1 is below its 5-year median of 136.4.
P/B below the industry
Trade Desk's price-to-book of 2.78 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $15.98 is below our fair value estimate of $39.48.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 59.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 22.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 102% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -24.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.8% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 7.0% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (Third Quarter 2026 Revenue, Aug 6, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 75.6% over the last twelve months, against 78.8% a year earlier.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 12.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 27.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Trade Desk's return on equity of 12.4% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 12.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 11.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.1%.
Net margin above the industry
Trade Desk's net margin of 11.0% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health5/6
No debt
Trade Desk has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 243.5 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.79 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.45; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Trade Desk has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$39.48
The share price is 60% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.0× | 185.8× | 27.6× | $31.05 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 136.4× | 18.8× | $44.64 | 41% |
| P/B | 9.6× | 15.7× | 3.3× | $55.12 | 12% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 12.9% cost of equity | – | – | $11.44 | – |
| Fair value | $39.48 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 186
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $268.30M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $111.20M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 59%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -1.15
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.60
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2013 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +18.5% | +22.4% | +28.2% | +38.2% | |
| Gross profit | +15.4% | +20.6% | +28.2% | +38.0% | |
| Operating income | +38.0% | +73.1% | +32.5% | +31.5% | |
| Net income | +12.8% | +102.5% | +12.8% | +39.5% | |
| EPS, diluted | +15.4% | +101.5% | +12.9% | +36.9% | |
| Free cash flow | +24.1% | +19.6% | +19.2% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 22.9% | 29.8% | 16.3% | |
| Return on assets | 5.5% | 10.8% | 7.2% | |
| Current ratio | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.61 | |
| Interest coverage | 18.7× | – | 329.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | 3.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 183M | 490M | 494M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Trade Desk generated $3.26B from operations and spent $2.74B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 18% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 15.3% | 0.47× | 2.26× | 16.3% |
| FY2024 | 16.1% | 0.44× | 2.15× | 15.4% |
| FY2023 | 9.2% | 0.42× | 2.17× | 8.4% |
| FY2022 | 3.4% | 0.40× | 2.18× | 2.9% |
| FY2021 | 11.5% | 0.38× | 2.49× | 10.8% |
| FY2020 | 29.0% | 0.37× | 2.76× | 29.8% |
| FY2019 | 16.4% | 0.46× | 2.83× | 21.5% |
| FY2018 | 18.5% | 0.50× | 2.99× | 27.5% |
| FY2017 | 16.5% | 0.46× | 3.26× | 24.8% |
| FY2016 | 10.1% | 0.54× | 4.19× | 22.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$443.30M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$992.72M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.0% → 7.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$992.72M vs $443.30M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.86 → 1.61
- No dilutionShare count did not rise502M → 494M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year80.69% → 78.63%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.50 → 0.47
See a number that looks wrong?